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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 11, 12:03AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
64.3%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Mets 5.5 Spread +470

The model graded 70 markets for New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $570 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 64.3% across 56 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 9 Aug 2026, 5:35PM at PNC Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win82.7%
The price says17.5%
Best price+470
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread New York Mets 5.5 High83% chance +470
Spread High91% chance
Total Runs Lean58% chance
Spread Lean44% chance
Moneyline High77% chance
Spread Lean48% chance
Spread Lean40% chance
Spread Lean56% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot34% chance
Batter - Hits × 6 props Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Highup to 77%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 6 props Highup to 88%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 78%
Batter - Total Bases × 8 props Highup to 88%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates last met on Sun 9 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 26 of 140 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 10
Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $690
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New York Mets
+7.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Brett Baty 3BDay-to-day
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Braxton Ashcraft SPOut
  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Kirby Yates RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jared Jones SP
Availability updated Sep 10, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Francisco Alvarez Batter - Hits
Sean Manaea NYM Pitcher - Earned Runs
Jared Triolo Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Bubba Chandler PIT Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Bryan Reynolds PIT Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York MetsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
2.9runs we expect
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 4 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2CHWAway
W9–3CHWAway
W1–0LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W1–0LAAHome
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W15–14MIAAway
W7–5MIAAway
W9–4MIAAway
W4–2SFHome
L5–9SFHome

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 1.8 runs per game (1-4) while New York Mets are at 3.6 (4-1); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 1.4 for New York Mets.

1.8
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
3.6
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesNew York Mets
Runs / game1.83.6
Hits / game2.23.4
Home runs / game0.01.0
Walks drawn / game0.80.4
Batter K / game3.02.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.21.4
Pitching K / game1.62.2
Walks allowed / game1.21.8
L5 record1-44-1

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 2, New York Mets won 4.

DatePittsburgh PiratesNew York MetsWinner
Aug 9111New York Mets
Aug 890Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 746New York Mets
Mar 2943Pittsburgh Pirates
Mar 2824New York Mets
Mar 26711New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Braxton Ashcraft SPOUT
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Kirby Yates RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Brett Baty 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Our New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for August 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 10, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets: Under 14 Total Runs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 1 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
56
Total Picks
64.3%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -1 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates -0.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread New York Mets +7.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -3.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 11 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -3 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates -3.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Sunday 9 August 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 64.3% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 25 meetings on record
New York Mets 14–11 across the last 25 meetings · these games average 9.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–11New York Mets
8 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–0Pittsburgh Pirates
7 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–6New York Mets
29 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets3–4Pittsburgh Pirates
28 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets4–2New York Mets
26 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets11–7New York Mets
29 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates12–1Pittsburgh Pirates
28 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–2Pittsburgh Pirates
27 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–1Pittsburgh Pirates
14 May 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets0–4Pittsburgh Pirates

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 25 meetings on file.

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