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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Chicago White Sox

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 3:08AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Thu 10 Sep 2026, 11:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Pittsburgh Pirates 2 Spread -256

The model graded 20 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $139 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 10 Sep 2026, 11:40PM at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win68.8%
The price says68.2%
Best price-256
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Pittsburgh Pirates 2 High69% chance -256
Spread High63% chance
Spread High79% chance
Spread Lean46% chance
Moneyline Lean56% chance
Spread High89% chance
Spread High78% chance
Spread High89% chance
Spread High98% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Pittsburgh Pirates are the model's favourite to beat Chicago White Sox, with a 56% chance to win. Predicted score: Chicago White Sox 3.5 – Pittsburgh Pirates 5.5. Kick-off Thu 10 Sep, 11:40PM at Guaranteed Rate Field. Best bet: Pittsburgh Pirates 2 at -256.
How they've been scoring this season
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago White Sox
Won-lost72-7375-69
Runs scored per game4.84.7
Runs allowed per game4.64.4
On the road / at home34-39 away43-29 at home
Last 5 gamesWWLWWLWLWL
Their games average 9.3 total runs this season.
From the 145 Pittsburgh Pirates and 144 Chicago White Sox games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 27 bookmakers compared
Winner
Pirates1.95-105ESPN BET
Sox1.95-105BetOnline
Total runs
Over7.51.93-108LowVig
Under7.51.95-105Hard Rock Bet

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox odds by bookmaker

27 books · best price in green
BookPirates winSox winSox +1.5Over 7.5Under 7.5
Polymarket2.02+1021.98-1021.58-1742.00+1002.00+100
Bally Bet1.89-1121.92-1091.91-1101.91-110
BetMGM1.91-1101.91-1101.91-1101.91-110
BetOnline1.95-1051.95-1051.91-1101.91-110
betPARX1.89-1121.92-1091.91-1101.91-110
BetRivers1.91-1101.93-1081.91-1101.91-110
Bovada1.91-1101.91-1101.87-1151.95-105
DraftKings1.91-1101.91-1101.89-1121.93-108
ESPN BET1.95-1051.87-1151.87-1151.95-105
Fanatics1.91-1101.91-1101.91-1101.91-110
FanDuel1.93-1081.93-1081.87-1151.95-105
Fliff1.91-1101.91-1101.87-1151.91-110
Hard Rock Bet1.91-1101.91-1101.87-1151.95-105
LowVig1.95-1051.95-1051.93-1081.93-108

Since the market opened: Sox to win opened 1.89, best now 1.98; the over 7.5 opened 1.88, best now 2.00 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Pittsburgh Pirates
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Under on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Under
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on Pittsburgh Pirates
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro

Closing line

Snapshot logged
We store the closing number to grade every pick's CLV.
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Kirby Yates RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Lake Bachar SP

Chicago White Sox

  • Drew Thorpe SPOut
  • Tommy Pham LFOut
  • Prelander Berroa RPOut
  • Ky Bush SPOut
  • Huascar Brazoban RPOut
  • Jordan Leasure RPOut
  • Joey Bart COut
  • Mike Vasil RPOut
  • Tanner Murray LFOut
  • Brooks Baldwin LFOut

Probable pitcher

Davis Martin SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The plate umpire

Behind the plate: Roberto Ortiz. Games he has called average 9.5 runs across 24 games on record — the league average this season is 9.2. Full umpire record →

Betting angles

3 markets live
Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run line+1.5 -172
77%cover %
-1.8proj. margin
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Away L53-2vs Chicago White Sox L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates spread vs Chicago White Sox is live and our model makes it 77% (HIGH); proj. margin -1.8.

MoneylinePittsburgh Pirates to win+116
56%model win %
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Away L53-2vs Chicago White Sox L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline vs Chicago White Sox is live and our model makes it 56% (LEAN); L5 record 4-1.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesOver 7.5 -112
54%over %
9.2proj. runs
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2Free board21-21

Chicago White Sox total runs vs Pittsburgh Pirates is live and our model makes it 54% (LEAN); proj. runs 9.2.

Team Total RunsChicago White Sox team totalNo line posted
1.7runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Chicago White Sox team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox — recent results

Chicago White Sox have won 2 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 4 of their last 5.

Chicago White Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–9PITHome
W10–1MINHome
L4–6MINHome
W4–1MINHome
L0–2HOUAway
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–3CHWAway
W1–0LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W1–0LAAHome
W5–2SFHome

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Chicago White Sox won 0, Pittsburgh Pirates won 1.

DateChicago White SoxPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Sep 839Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago White Sox
PlayerStatus
Drew Thorpe SPOUT
Tommy Pham LFOUT
Prelander Berroa RPOUT
Ky Bush SPOUT
Huascar Brazoban RPOUT
Jordan Leasure RPOUT
Joey Bart COUT
Mike Vasil RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Kirby Yates RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox — where the money went

Since betting opened on Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox, the market has moved away from Under across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Total Points — Under 7.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 8.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Chicago White Sox -1.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 8.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 7.5▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — Pittsburgh Pirates▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 8▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 8▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox — model preview

Our Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox prediction for September 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 10, 2026 our model has run Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh Pirates +2.5 (-294), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Sox, or as Sox vs Pirates. The next scheduled game is Thursday 10 September 2026 at Guaranteed Rate Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 10 meetings on record
Pittsburgh Pirates 6–4 across the last 10 meetings · these games average 11.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
8 Sep 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox3–9Pittsburgh Pirates
20 Jul 2025Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–7Chicago White Sox
19 Jul 2025Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–10Chicago White Sox
18 Jul 2025Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–10Chicago White Sox
14 Jul 2024Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox4–9Pittsburgh Pirates
13 Jul 2024Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox2–6Pittsburgh Pirates
12 Jul 2024Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox1–4Pittsburgh Pirates
9 Apr 2023Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–0Pittsburgh Pirates
8 Apr 2023Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–11Chicago White Sox
7 Apr 2023Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates13–9Pittsburgh Pirates
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