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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
82.9%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 Spread +330

The model graded 70 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $430 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 82.9% across 41 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 5:35PM at PNC Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win22.7%
The price says23.4%
Best price+330
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 Long-shot23% chance +330
Spread Long-shot15% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings High61% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Lean42% chance
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Lean45% chance
Spread Lean55% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Lean57% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot26% chance
Spread High61% chance
Batter - Walks × 13 props Highup to 95%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 12 props Highup to 98%
Batter - Singles × 8 props Highup to 88%
Batter - Hits × 3 props Highup to 92%
Batter - Total Bases × 8 props Highup to 92%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates last met on Sun 16 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 · $100 returned $440

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Pittsburgh Pirates
-4.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BOut
  • Adley Rutschman CDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Ceddanne Rafaela CFOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jake Bennett SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Kirby Yates RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Lake Bachar SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Nick Sogard Batter - Walks
Connor Wong Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Jarren Duran Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Esmerlyn Valdez Batter - Walks
Willson Contreras STL Batter - Singles

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 4 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 4 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–3CHWAway
W1–0LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W1–0LAAHome
W5–2SFHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–6LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome
W3–1BALAway
W5–0BALAway
W1–0BALAway

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 3.6 runs per game (2-3) while Boston Red Sox are at 0.4 (2-3); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 0.8 for Boston Red Sox.

3.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
0.4
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesBoston Red Sox
Runs / game3.60.4
Hits / game3.60.8
Home runs / game0.40.2
Walks drawn / game1.00.6
Batter K / game1.41.2
Earned runs allowed / game1.00.8
Pitching K / game1.60.8
Walks allowed / game0.40.6
L5 record2-32-3

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 4, Boston Red Sox won 2.

DatePittsburgh PiratesBoston Red SoxWinner
Aug 1683Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 1504Boston Red Sox
Aug 1484Pittsburgh Pirates
Mar 2236Boston Red Sox
Mar 897Pittsburgh Pirates
Feb 24167Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Kirby Yates RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Willson Contreras 1BOUT
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Kutter Crawford SPOUT
Johan Oviedo SPOUT
Ceddanne Rafaela CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Our Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for August 17, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 17, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Henry Davis Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-256), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
41
Total Picks
82.9%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates 0.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates -3.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 12 ✗ MISS
16 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates +1 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates -0.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates 2.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates 3.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Sunday 16 August 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 82.9% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 21 meetings on record
Pittsburgh Pirates 11–10 across the last 21 meetings · these games average 9.2 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
16 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates8–3Pittsburgh Pirates
15 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–4Boston Red Sox
14 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates8–4Pittsburgh Pirates
22 Mar 2026Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–6Boston Red Sox
8 Mar 2026Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–7Pittsburgh Pirates
24 Feb 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Boston Red Sox7–16Pittsburgh Pirates
31 Aug 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Boston Red Sox5–2Boston Red Sox
30 Aug 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Boston Red Sox3–10Pittsburgh Pirates
29 Aug 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Boston Red Sox2–4Pittsburgh Pirates
21 Mar 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Boston Red Sox2–1Boston Red Sox

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 21 meetings on file.

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