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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Miami Marlins

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:40AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Wed 26 Aug 2026, 10:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Miami Marlins Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings +126

The model graded 70 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $226 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 26 Aug 2026, 10:40PM at loanDepot Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win43.3%
The price says41.7%
Best price+126
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Miami Marlins Lean43% chance +126
Spread - 1st 5 Innings High66% chance
Spread Long-shot29% chance
Spread Lean41% chance
Spread Long-shot39% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot15% chance
Spread Lean58% chance
Moneyline Lean47% chance
Spread High75% chance
Batter - Walks × 9 props Highup to 98%
Batter - Hits × 3 props Highup to 91%
Batter - Runs Scored × 6 props Highup to 73%
Batter - Singles × 5 props Highup to 64%
Batter - Total Bases × 8 props Highup to 70%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins last met on Wed 26 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Miami Marlins · $100 returned $224

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Miami Marlins
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Miami MarlinsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BOut
  • Adley Rutschman CDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Ceddanne Rafaela CFOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jake Bennett SP

Miami Marlins

  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Xavier Edwards 2BOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut

Probable pitcher

Janson Junk SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 10:45PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jarren Duran BOS Batter - Walks
Caleb Durbin Batter - Walks
Owen Caissie Batter - Walks
Xavier Edwards MIA Batter - Walks
Wilyer Abreu BOS Batter - Hits

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L54-1Free board15-14

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
1.4runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins — recent results

Miami Marlins have won 1 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 3 of their last 5.

Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L14–15NYMHome
L5–7NYMHome
L4–9NYMHome
W10–3CHCHome
L5–6CHCHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome
W3–1BALAway
W5–0BALAway

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Miami Marlins are scoring 1.8 runs per game (3-2) while Boston Red Sox are at 1.0 (2-3); Miami Marlins pitchers are allowing 0.6 earned runs per game versus 1.2 for Boston Red Sox.

1.8
Miami Marlins runs/G
1.0
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesMiami MarlinsBoston Red Sox
Runs / game1.81.0
Hits / game2.22.0
Home runs / game0.20.2
Walks drawn / game1.60.6
Batter K / game2.22.2
Earned runs allowed / game0.61.2
Pitching K / game2.62.4
Walks allowed / game1.41.2
L5 record3-22-3

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Miami Marlins won 1, Boston Red Sox won 2.

DateMiami MarlinsBoston Red SoxWinner
Aug 2640Miami Marlins
Aug 2537Boston Red Sox
Aug 2424Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Anthony Bender RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Xavier Edwards 2BOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Ronny Henriquez RPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Willson Contreras 1BOUT
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Kutter Crawford SPOUT
Johan Oviedo SPOUT
Ceddanne Rafaela CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins — model preview

Our Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins prediction for August 27, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 27, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-196), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
26 Aug 26 Moneyline Miami Marlins ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Miami Marlins 0.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins +3 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins -1.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins -2.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins +1.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Miami Marlins ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins +3.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins +2 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Marlins, or as Marlins vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 26 August 2026 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 15 meetings on record
Boston Red Sox 10–5 across the last 15 meetings · these games average 9.2 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins4–0Miami Marlins
25 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins3–7Boston Red Sox
24 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins2–4Boston Red Sox
17 Aug 2025Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox3–5Miami Marlins
16 Aug 2025Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox7–5Boston Red Sox
15 Aug 2025Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox2–1Boston Red Sox
14 Mar 2025Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins4–9Boston Red Sox
7 Mar 2025Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox20–5Boston Red Sox
4 Jul 2024Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins5–6Boston Red Sox
3 Jul 2024Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins2–7Boston Red Sox

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 15 meetings on file.

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