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Model picks & player props
Washington Nationals
VS
Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:21AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Miami Marlins -2.5 Spread +220

The model graded 70 markets for Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $320 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:40PM at loanDepot Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win26.7%
The price says30.7%
Best price+220
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Miami Marlins -2.5 Long-shot27% chance +220
Moneyline Long-shot38% chance
Spread Long-shot10% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot5% chance
Total Runs Long-shot31% chance
Spread Long-shot3% chance
Spread Long-shot5% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot17% chance
Spread Long-shot2% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 92%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 70%
Batter - Walks × 12 props Highup to 98%
Batter - Runs Scored × 4 props Highup to 68%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 4 props Highup to 90%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins last met on Sun 23 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Miami Marlins -2.5 · $100 returned $320

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Miami Marlins
-5.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Washington Nationals

  • Orlando Ribalta RPOut
  • Matt Waldron RPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jackson Kent SP

Miami Marlins

  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Xavier Edwards 2BOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut

Probable pitcher

Janson Junk SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 10:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jackson Kent Pitcher - Strikeouts
Jackson Kent Pitcher - Walks
Dylan Crews WSN Batter - Walks
Owen Caissie Batter - Walks
Javier Sanoja Batter - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L54-1Free board15-14

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L54-1

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs Washington NationalsNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L54-1

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins — recent results

Miami Marlins have won 1 of their last 5 games; Washington Nationals have won 0 of their last 5.

Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L14–15NYMHome
L5–7NYMHome
L4–9NYMHome
W10–3CHCHome
L5–6CHCHome
Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–5SDAway
L2–9SDAway
L5–7LADAway
L2–3SDAway
L5–6LADAway

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Miami Marlins won 7, Washington Nationals won 3.

DateMiami MarlinsWashington NationalsWinner
Aug 3136Washington Nationals
Aug 3062Miami Marlins
Aug 2945Washington Nationals
Aug 2829Washington Nationals
Aug 2362Miami Marlins
Aug 2242Miami Marlins
Aug 2132Miami Marlins
Jun 341Miami Marlins
Jun 273Miami Marlins
Jun 173Miami Marlins

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Anthony Bender RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Xavier Edwards 2BOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Ronny Henriquez RPOUT
Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Orlando Ribalta RPOUT
Matt Waldron RPOUT
Connelly Early SPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Josiah Gray SPOUT
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins — model preview

Our Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins prediction for August 24, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 24, 2026 our model has run Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 RBIs (-303), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
23 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins -2.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins -3.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Miami Marlins -1.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins -1 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Miami Marlins -0.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins +1 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins -1.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins -2 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread Miami Marlins -3 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Nationals vs Marlins, or as Marlins vs Nationals. The most recent game between them was Sunday 23 August 2026 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 73 meetings on record
Miami Marlins 38–32 across the last 73 meetings · 3 draws · these games average 9.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
31 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals6–3Washington Nationals
30 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals2–6Miami Marlins
29 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals5–4Washington Nationals
28 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals9–2Washington Nationals
23 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins6–2Miami Marlins
22 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins4–2Miami Marlins
21 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins3–2Miami Marlins
3 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals1–4Miami Marlins
2 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals3–7Miami Marlins
1 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals3–7Miami Marlins

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 73 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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