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Today's UFC Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Fight

Free UFC picks across moneyline, method of victory, total rounds and fight props. Every pick shows how likely it is, the best price on offer, and the reasoning behind it — in plain English.

13 fights coming up, and the first pick of every fight is free

Best UFC bet today: Manon Fiorot at Alexa Grasso: Manon Fiorot Spread -3.5 at +120, high confidence. Alexa Grasso fights Manon Fiorot on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. 13 games on the board.

The one we'd back first · Manon Fiorot v Alexa Grasso
Manon Fiorot at Alexa Grasso: Manon Fiorot Spread -3.5 +120
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win60.5%
$50 returns$110.00
The rest of the cardfull reasoning on each game below
Manon Fiorot v Alexa GrassoManon Fiorot v Alexa Grasso Manon Fiorot at Alexa Grasso: Manon Fiorot Spread -3.5 High61% chance +120
Jose Miguel Delgado v Jean SilvaJose Miguel Delgado v Jean Silva Jose Miguel Delgado at Jean Silva: Under Total Rounds 1.5 High70% chance +189
Joseph Morales v Brandon MorenoJoseph Morales v Brandon Moreno Joseph Morales at Brandon Moreno: Joseph Morales Spread -3.5 Lean49% chance +165
Waldo Cortes Acosta v Curtis BlaydesWaldo Cortes Acosta v Curtis Blaydes Waldo Cortes Acosta at Curtis Blaydes: Waldo Cortes-Acosta Spread -5.5 Lean59% chance +110
Édgar Cháirez v Tim ElliottÉdgar Cháirez v Tim Elliott Édgar Cháirez at Tim Elliott: Tim Elliott Moneyline Lean46% chance +186
Ignacio Bahamondes v Muslim SalikhovIgnacio Bahamondes v Muslim Salikhov Ignacio Bahamondes at Muslim Salikhov: Muslim Salikhov Moneyline Long-shot29% chance +440
Djorden Santos v Yousri BelgarouiDjorden Santos v Yousri Belgaroui Djorden Santos at Yousri Belgaroui: Djorden Santos Moneyline Long-shot30% chance +660
David Martinez v Dan IgeDavid Martinez v Dan Ige David Martinez at Dan Ige: Dan Ige Moneyline Long-shot32% chance +330
Rongzhu v Rafa GarciaRongzhu v Rafa Garcia Rongzhu at Rafa Garcia: Rafa Garcia Moneyline Lean45% chance +170
Regina Tarin v JJ AldrichRegina Tarin v JJ Aldrich Regina Tarin at JJ Aldrich: J.J. Aldrich Moneyline Long-shot33% chance +260
Marwan Rahiki v Tommy McMillenMarwan Rahiki v Tommy McMillen Marwan Rahiki at Tommy McMillen: Marwan Rahiki Moneyline Lean44% chance +150
Tommy Gantt v Drakkar KloseTommy Gantt v Drakkar Klose Tommy Gantt at Drakkar Klose: Drakkar Klose Moneyline Long-shot23% chance +410
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
8 more picks on the card
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UFCManon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso 2026-09-12 00:00
Manon Fiorot Away
vs.
Home Alexa Grasso
Show Picks
Manon Fiorot at Alexa Grasso: Manon Fiorot Spread -3.5
Chance to win 60.5%
The price says 45.5%
Best price +120

Alexa Grasso vs Manon Fiorot: Manon Fiorot -3.5 rounds (+120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Alexa Grasso fights Manon Fiorot on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This one lands if Manon Fiorot covers the -3.5 round line. It was priced at +120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. The bet we are looking at is Manon Fiorot -3.5 rounds. That is a round handicap bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Manon Fiorot at Alexa Grasso · Total Rounds 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 23.0%
Manon Fiorot at Alexa Grasso · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 31.7%
UFCJose Miguel Delgado vs. Jean Silva 2026-09-12 00:00
Jose Miguel Delgado Away
vs.
Home Jean Silva
Show Picks
Jose Miguel Delgado at Jean Silva: Under Total Rounds 1.5
Chance to win 70.4%
The price says 34.6%
Best price +189

Jean Silva vs Jose Miguel Delgado: Under 1.5 total rounds (+189)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Jean Silva fights Jose Miguel Delgado on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This one lands if the fight is finished inside 1.5 rounds. It was priced at +189 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.90 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. The bet we are looking at is Under 1.5 total rounds. That is a total rounds bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jose Miguel Delgado at Jean Silva · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 22.7%
Jose Miguel Delgado at Jean Silva · Spread 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 37.7%
UFCJoseph Morales vs. Brandon Moreno 2026-09-12 00:00
Joseph Morales Away
vs.
Home Brandon Moreno
Show Picks
Joseph Morales at Brandon Moreno: Joseph Morales Spread -3.5
Chance to win 48.9%
The price says 37.7%
Best price +165

Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales: Joseph Morales -3.5 rounds (+165)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Brandon Moreno fights Joseph Morales on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This one lands if Joseph Morales covers the -3.5 round line. It was priced at +165 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26.50 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Joseph Morales -3.5 rounds. That is a round handicap bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Joseph Morales at Brandon Moreno · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 49.0%
UFCWaldo Cortes Acosta vs. Curtis Blaydes 2026-09-12 00:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta Away
vs.
Home Curtis Blaydes
Show Picks
Waldo Cortes Acosta at Curtis Blaydes: Waldo Cortes-Acosta Spread -5.5
Chance to win 58.5%
The price says 47.6%
Best price +110

Curtis Blaydes vs Waldo Cortes Acosta: Waldo Cortes-Acosta -5.5 Point Spread (+110)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Curtis Blaydes are stepping into the octagon for a big fight, and it's expected to be quite close. Cortes-Acosta has a slight reach advantage, which might help him keep Blaydes at bay. Both fighters have strengths, but Cortes-Acosta has shown solid form lately, and he needs to avoid getting taken down by Blaydes, who is known for his wrestling. The numbers suggest this matchup is nearly even, but the bet on Cortes-Acosta -5.5 looks promising. One concrete risk is Blaydes' ability to absorb punishment, as he has a bit more durability. Still, with the odds at +110, this bet could pay off if Cortes-Acosta fights smart and uses his reach effectively.

Waldo Cortes Acosta at Curtis Blaydes · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 36.0%
UFCÉdgar Cháirez vs. Tim Elliott 2026-09-12 00:00
Édgar Cháirez Away
vs.
Home Tim Elliott
Show Picks
Édgar Cháirez at Tim Elliott: Tim Elliott Moneyline
Chance to win 45.6%
The price says 35.0%
Best price +186

Tim Elliott vs Édgar Cháirez: Tim Elliott to win the fight (+186)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Tim Elliott fights Édgar Cháirez on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Tim Elliott gets the win. It was priced at +186 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.60 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Tim Elliott to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCIgnacio Bahamondes vs. Muslim Salikhov 2026-09-12 00:00
Ignacio Bahamondes Away
vs.
Home Muslim Salikhov
Show Picks
Ignacio Bahamondes at Muslim Salikhov: Muslim Salikhov Moneyline
Chance to win 28.8%
The price says 18.5%
Best price +440

Muslim Salikhov vs Ignacio Bahamondes: Muslim Salikhov to win the fight (+440)

Odds available at Matchbook at time of publishing

Muslim Salikhov fights Ignacio Bahamondes on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Muslim Salikhov gets the win. It was priced at +440 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $54 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Muslim Salikhov to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCDjorden Santos vs. Yousri Belgaroui 2026-09-12 00:00
Djorden Santos Away
vs.
Home Yousri Belgaroui
Show Picks
Djorden Santos at Yousri Belgaroui: Djorden Santos Moneyline
Chance to win 29.9%
The price says 13.2%
Best price +660

Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos: Djorden Santos to win the fight (+660)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Yousri Belgaroui fights Djorden Santos on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Djorden Santos gets the win. It was priced at +660 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $76 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Djorden Santos to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCDavid Martinez vs. Dan Ige 2026-09-12 00:00
David Martinez Away
vs.
Home Dan Ige
Show Picks
David Martinez at Dan Ige: Dan Ige Moneyline
Chance to win 32.0%
The price says 23.3%
Best price +330

Dan Ige vs David Martinez: Dan Ige to win the fight (+330)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Dan Ige fights David Martinez on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Dan Ige gets the win. It was priced at +330 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $43 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Dan Ige to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

David Martinez at Dan Ige · Spread 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 58.5%
UFCRongzhu vs. Rafa Garcia 2026-09-12 00:00
Rongzhu Away
vs.
Home Rafa Garcia
Show Picks
Rongzhu at Rafa Garcia: Rafa Garcia Moneyline
Chance to win 45.4%
The price says 37.0%
Best price +170

Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu: Rafa Garcia to win the fight (+170)

Odds available at William Hill at time of publishing

Rafa Garcia fights Rongzhu on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Rafa Garcia gets the win. It was priced at +170 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Rafa Garcia to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCRegina Tarin vs. JJ Aldrich 2026-09-12 00:00
Regina Tarin Away
vs.
Home JJ Aldrich
Show Picks
Regina Tarin at JJ Aldrich: J.J. Aldrich Moneyline
Chance to win 33.3%
The price says 27.8%
Best price +260

JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin: J.J. Aldrich to win the fight (+260)

Odds available at hardrockbet at time of publishing

JJ Aldrich fights Regina Tarin on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if J.J. Aldrich gets the win. It was priced at +260 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $36 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is J.J. Aldrich to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCMarwan Rahiki vs. Tommy McMillen 2026-09-12 00:00
Marwan Rahiki Away
vs.
Home Tommy McMillen
Show Picks
Marwan Rahiki at Tommy McMillen: Marwan Rahiki Moneyline
Chance to win 44.4%
The price says 40.0%
Best price +150

Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki: Marwan Rahiki to win the fight (+150)

Odds available at ballybet at time of publishing

Tommy McMillen fights Marwan Rahiki on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Marwan Rahiki gets the win. It was priced at +150 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Marwan Rahiki to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Marwan Rahiki at Tommy McMillen · Spread 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 52.4%
UFCTommy Gantt vs. Drakkar Klose 2026-09-12 00:00
Tommy Gantt Away
vs.
Home Drakkar Klose
Show Picks
Tommy Gantt at Drakkar Klose: Drakkar Klose Moneyline
Chance to win 22.8%
The price says 19.6%
Best price +410

Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt: Drakkar Klose to win the fight (+410)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Drakkar Klose fights Tommy Gantt on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Drakkar Klose gets the win. It was priced at +410 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $51 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Drakkar Klose to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCSean King vs. Jessie Rosas 2026-09-12 00:00
Sean King Away
vs.
Home Jessie Rosas
Show Picks
Sean King at Jessie Rosas: Jessie Rosas Moneyline
Chance to win 40.0%
The price says 39.5%
Best price +153

Jessie Rosas vs Sean King: Jessie Rosas to win the fight (+153)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Jessie Rosas fights Sean King on the UFC card on Saturday 12 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Jessie Rosas gets the win. It was priced at +153 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25.30 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Jessie Rosas to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Quick answer

What are UFC picks?

UFC picks are model-generated predictions for UFC betting markets including moneyline (winner), method of victory, total rounds and fight props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming UFC game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked strongest first, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's chance the price suggests from odds. A pick means the model thinks the true chance is higher than the price suggests.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

UFC pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which fighter wins the bout outright, by any method. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Method of Victory How a fighter wins — KO/TKO, Submission or Decision. Clear stylistic mismatches where the finish is predictable.
Total Rounds Over or under a set number of rounds. Finishing rates, durability, cardio and pace trends.
Fight Props Go the distance, round betting and method combinations. Exploit style edges, finishing tendencies or recent form streaks.

How to read UFC picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the chance suggested by odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the gap. A pick is stronger when the model's chance is clearly higher than the bookmaker's price suggests. The bigger that gap, the more the price is in your favour.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a strong pick makes a real difference to your long-run results.
Note: This page shows all model-generated UFC picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

The model's chance, a value call, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major UFC market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

UFC Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are UFC picks?

UFC picks are model-generated predictions for UFC betting markets including moneyline, method of victory, total rounds and fight props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What is the difference between UFC picks and UFC best bets?

UFC Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. The strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game's list.

What types of UFC picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, Submission or Decision), total rounds (over/under a set number of rounds), and fight props (go the distance, round betting and method combinations). Fight markets and prop markets are displayed together within each bout, ranked so the strongest picks surface first.

How often are UFC picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can change the numbers on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What makes something a pick here?

A pick happens when the model's number and the bookmaker's price disagree: the model works out how likely the result really is, and when that chance is clearly higher than the price gives credit for, the gap is what makes it a pick. The bigger the gap, the stronger the pick — over many bets, not as a guarantee on any single one.

Can I use UFC picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-confidence selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal picks. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the UFC Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee UFC picks will win?

No. UFC picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-confidence selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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