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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:42AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
36
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Boston Red Sox -4 Spread +387

The model graded 56 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $487 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 6 Sep 2026, 5:35PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win20.0%
The price says21.5%
Best price+387
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Boston Red Sox -4 Long-shot20% chance +387
Spread Long-shot13% chance —
Spread High80% chance —
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Lean47% chance —
Spread Long-shot9% chance —
Total Runs Lean46% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot21% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot16% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot26% chance —
Batter - Total Bases × 1 prop Long-shotup to 36% —
Batter - Stolen Bases × 1 prop Long-shotup to 27% —
Batter - Walks × 4 props Leanup to 43% —
Batter - RBIs × 1 prop Leanup to 52% —
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 3 props Leanup to 54% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles last met on Sun 6 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Colton Cowser Over 0.5 · $100 returned $750

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Boston Red Sox
-5
+573
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 36 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BOut
  • Adley Rutschman CDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Ceddanne Rafaela CFOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jake Bennett SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Gunnar Henderson SSDay-to-day
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Christian Franklin CFOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Luis Robert Jr. CFOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Shane Baz SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 10:45PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 25 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability25 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 7 Sep

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction and Picks, September 7, 2026

On September 7, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: Over 5.5 Total Runs (-238), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Leody Taveras (TEX) Under 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Baltimore Orioles play Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Leody Taveras (TEX) Under 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+120). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at +120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Blaze Alexander Under 0.5 Singles (-128)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Baltimore Orioles play Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Blaze Alexander Under 0.5 Singles (-128). That is a Singles bet. It was priced at -128 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.81 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jarren Duran Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-192)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Baltimore Orioles play Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jarren Duran Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-192). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at -192 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.21 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: Over 5.5 Total Runs (-238)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Baltimore Orioles play Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: Over 5.5 Total Runs (-238). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -238 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: Over 6 Total Runs (-204)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Baltimore Orioles play Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: Over 6 Total Runs (-204). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -204 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: Over 3.5 totals 1st 5 innings (-141)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Baltimore Orioles play Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: Over 3.5 totals 1st 5 innings (-141). That is a totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -141 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.09 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 7 Sep

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 7, 2026

On September 7, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Andruw Monasterio (BOS) Under 0.5 Walks (-312)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Baltimore Orioles play Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Andruw Monasterio (BOS) Under 0.5 Walks (-312). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -312 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.21 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Coby Mayo Under 0.5 Walks (-333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Baltimore Orioles play Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Coby Mayo Under 0.5 Walks (-333). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 Walks (-435)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Baltimore Orioles play Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 Walks (-435). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -435 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Adley Rutschman Batter - Total Bases
Carlos Narvaez Batter - Stolen Bases
Mickey Gasper Batter - Walks
Adley Rutschman Batter - RBIs
Adley Rutschman Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 36 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA2.0Home L51-4vs Boston Red Sox L51-4

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA2.0Home L51-4vs Boston Red Sox L51-4

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
0.7runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA2.0Home L51-4vs Boston Red Sox L51-4

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles — what the model found

Our model graded 56 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles — 20 on the game itself and 36 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
36
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 56 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 55 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles — recent results

Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 3 of their last 5.

Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–5CLEHome
L5–9CLEHome
W6–4CLEHome
L1–3BOSHome
L0–5BOSHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome
W3–1BALAway
W5–0BALAway

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Baltimore Orioles are scoring 1.2 runs per game (1-4) while Boston Red Sox are at 1.2 (2-3); Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 1.2 for Boston Red Sox.

1.2
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
1.2
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesBaltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox
Runs / game1.21.2
Hits / game3.02.6
Home runs / game0.20.8
Walks drawn / game1.20.4
Batter K / game1.20.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.81.2
Pitching K / game1.81.0
Walks allowed / game0.60.8
L5 record1-42-3

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Baltimore Orioles won 3, Boston Red Sox won 7.

DateBaltimore OriolesBoston Red SoxWinner
Sep 613Boston Red Sox
Sep 505Boston Red Sox
Sep 401Boston Red Sox
Sep 356Boston Red Sox
Jul 2251Baltimore Orioles
Jul 2236Boston Red Sox
Jul 2056Boston Red Sox
Jun 482Baltimore Orioles
Jun 318Boston Red Sox
Jun 242Baltimore Orioles

Who’s out or in doubt

25 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Gunnar Henderson SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Christian Franklin CFOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Luis Robert Jr. CFOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Willson Contreras 1BOUT
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Kutter Crawford SPOUT
Johan Oviedo SPOUT
Ceddanne Rafaela CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

Our Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles prediction for September 7, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 7, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: Over 5.5 Total Runs (-238), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
06 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Boston Red Sox -0.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Boston Red Sox -1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Boston Red Sox 0.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -1 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Spread Boston Red Sox +1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Moneyline Boston Red Sox ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Spread Boston Red Sox +1 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Orioles, or as Orioles vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Sunday 6 September 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 20 game picks and 36 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 59 meetings on record
Even at 29–29 across the last 59 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 10.0 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Sep 2026Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles1–3Boston Red Sox
5 Sep 2026Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles0–5Boston Red Sox
4 Sep 2026Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles0–1Boston Red Sox
3 Sep 2026Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles5–6Boston Red Sox
22 Jul 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox1–5Baltimore Orioles
20 Jul 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox6–5Boston Red Sox
4 Jun 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox2–8Baltimore Orioles
3 Jun 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox8–1Boston Red Sox
2 Jun 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox2–4Baltimore Orioles
26 Apr 2026Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles3–5Boston Red Sox

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 59 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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