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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Minnesota Twins

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:49AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Target Field, Minneapolis
Outdoor
Wed 12 Aug 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
67.5%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Minnesota Twins -2.5 Spread +300

The model graded 70 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $400 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 67.5% across 40 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 12 Aug 2026, 5:40PM at Target Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win33.9%
The price says26.2%
Best price+300
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Minnesota Twins -2.5 Long-shot34% chance +300
Spread Lean44% chance
Spread Long-shot25% chance
Spread Long-shot39% chance
Spread Long-shot13% chance
Spread Long-shot8% chance
Spread High68% chance
Total Runs Long-shot37% chance
Spread High73% chance
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Highup to 94%
Batter - Singles × 7 props Highup to 93%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 81%
Batter - Runs Scored × 7 props Highup to 93%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 78%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins last met on Wed 12 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Minnesota Twins -3 · $100 returned $478

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Minnesota Twins
-2
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Gunnar Henderson SSDay-to-day
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Christian Franklin CFOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Luis Robert Jr. CFOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Shane Baz SP

Minnesota Twins

  • Austin Martin RFOut
  • Byron Buxton CFOut
  • Mike Paredes SPOut
  • Cole Sands RPOut
  • David Festa SPOut
  • Mick Abel SPOut
  • Anthony Banda RPOut
  • Pablo Lopez SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zebby Matthews SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 10:35PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Luke Keaschall Batter - Total Bases
Trevor Larnach MIN Batter - Singles
Shane Baz TBR Pitcher - Strikeouts
Josh Bell WSN Batter - Runs Scored
Ryan Kreidler Batter - Singles

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMinnesota TwinsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Baltimore Orioles L51-4

Minnesota Twins moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Run LineMinnesota Twins run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Baltimore Orioles L51-4

Minnesota Twins spread form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Minnesota Twins total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMinnesota Twins team totalNo line posted
2.0runs we expect
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Baltimore Orioles L51-4

Minnesota Twins team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins — recent results

Minnesota Twins have won 2 of their last 5 games; Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5.

Minnesota Twins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–7DETAway
W3–2DETAway
L4–5DETAway
L1–10CHWAway
W6–4CHWAway
Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–5CLEHome
L5–9CLEHome
W6–4CLEHome
L1–3BOSHome
L0–5BOSHome

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Minnesota Twins are scoring 1.0 runs per game (1-4) while Baltimore Orioles are at 1.6 (4-1); Minnesota Twins pitchers are allowing 1.6 earned runs per game versus 0.6 for Baltimore Orioles.

1.0
Minnesota Twins runs/G
1.6
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesMinnesota TwinsBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game1.01.6
Hits / game1.42.8
Home runs / game0.00.4
Walks drawn / game0.81.6
Batter K / game1.01.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.60.6
Pitching K / game1.81.4
Walks allowed / game0.80.8
L5 record1-44-1

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins — recent meetings

These two have met 8 times recently: Minnesota Twins won 3, Baltimore Orioles won 5.

DateMinnesota TwinsBaltimore OriolesWinner
Aug 1275Minnesota Twins
Aug 1125Baltimore Orioles
Aug 1095Minnesota Twins
Mar 2968Baltimore Orioles
Mar 2841Minnesota Twins
Mar 2612Baltimore Orioles
Mar 723Baltimore Orioles
Feb 24510Baltimore Orioles

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Minnesota Twins
PlayerStatus
Austin Martin RFOUT
Byron Buxton CFOUT
Mike Paredes SPOUT
Cole Sands RPOUT
David Festa SPOUT
Mick Abel SPOUT
Anthony Banda RPOUT
Pablo Lopez SPOUT
Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Gunnar Henderson SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Christian Franklin CFOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Luis Robert Jr. CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins — model preview

Our Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins prediction for August 13, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 13, 2026 our model has run Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Leody Taveras (TEX) Under 0.5 Walks (-312), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
40
Total Picks
67.5%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Minnesota Twins -3.5 ✗ MISS
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread Minnesota Twins -2.5 ✗ MISS
12 Aug 26 Spread Minnesota Twins +1 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread Minnesota Twins +1.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread Minnesota Twins -1.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Minnesota Twins 0.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread Minnesota Twins +2.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Moneyline Minnesota Twins ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread Minnesota Twins -3 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Twins, or as Twins vs Orioles. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 12 August 2026 at Target Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 67.5% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 35 meetings on record
Baltimore Orioles 22–12 across the last 35 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 9.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins7–5Minnesota Twins
11 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins2–5Baltimore Orioles
10 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins9–5Minnesota Twins
29 Mar 2026Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles8–6Baltimore Orioles
28 Mar 2026Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles1–4Minnesota Twins
26 Mar 2026Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles2–1Baltimore Orioles
7 Mar 2026Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles3–2Baltimore Orioles
24 Feb 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins5–10Baltimore Orioles
15 May 2025Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles0–4Minnesota Twins
14 May 2025Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles3–6Minnesota Twins

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 35 meetings on file.

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