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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Minnesota Twins

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:27AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Target Field, Minneapolis
Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 6:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 10.5 Total Runs -172

The model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $158 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 6:10PM at Target Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win63.5%
The price says59.4%
Best price-172
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 10.5 High64% chance -172
Total Runs High77% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Lean43% chance
Total Runs High83% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot33% chance
Spread Long-shot20% chance
Total Runs Lean48% chance
Total Runs Long-shot29% chance
Total Runs Long-shot31% chance
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 75%
Batter - Walks × 7 props Highup to 96%
Batter - Total Bases × 10 props Highup to 89%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 84%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 8 props Highup to 83%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins last met on Sun 16 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Philadelphia Phillies -4 · $100 returned $463

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
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CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Our call on this game: 1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
13.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP

Minnesota Twins

  • Austin Martin RFOut
  • Byron Buxton CFOut
  • Mike Paredes SPOut
  • Cole Sands RPOut
  • David Festa SPOut
  • Mick Abel SPOut
  • Anthony Banda RPOut
  • Pablo Lopez SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zebby Matthews SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 10:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Andrew Painter Pitcher - Walks
Luke Keaschall MIN Batter - Walks
Byron Buxton MIN Batter - Total Bases
Andrew Painter Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMinnesota TwinsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

Minnesota Twins moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Run LineMinnesota Twins run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

Minnesota Twins spread form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Minnesota Twins total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMinnesota Twins team totalNo line posted
2.0runs we expect
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

Minnesota Twins team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — recent results

Minnesota Twins have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5.

Minnesota Twins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–7DETAway
W3–2DETAway
L4–5DETAway
L1–10CHWAway
W6–4CHWAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–7HOUHome
L5–6HOUHome
W1–0ATLHome
L4–5ATLHome
W4–2ATLHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Minnesota Twins are scoring 1.8 runs per game (2-3) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 2.6 (2-3); Minnesota Twins pitchers are allowing 0.6 earned runs per game versus 2.0 for Philadelphia Phillies.

1.8
Minnesota Twins runs/G
2.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesMinnesota TwinsPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game1.82.6
Hits / game2.85.2
Home runs / game0.00.2
Walks drawn / game0.41.6
Batter K / game0.82.0
Earned runs allowed / game0.62.0
Pitching K / game1.84.0
Walks allowed / game0.41.2
L5 record2-32-3

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: Minnesota Twins won 1, Philadelphia Phillies won 4.

DateMinnesota TwinsPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Aug 1657Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 1519Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 1317Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 1702Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 876Minnesota Twins

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Minnesota Twins
PlayerStatus
Austin Martin RFOUT
Byron Buxton CFOUT
Mike Paredes SPOUT
Cole Sands RPOUT
David Festa SPOUT
Mick Abel SPOUT
Anthony Banda RPOUT
Pablo Lopez SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins prediction for August 17, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 17, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 RBIs (-294), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 11 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 12.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Twins, or as Twins vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 16 August 2026 at Target Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 19 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 11–6 across the last 19 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 7.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
16 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins5–7Philadelphia Phillies
15 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins1–9Philadelphia Phillies
13 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins1–7Philadelphia Phillies
17 Mar 2026Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies2–0Philadelphia Phillies
8 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins7–6Minnesota Twins
28 Sep 2025Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies2–1Philadelphia Phillies
27 Sep 2025Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies0–5Minnesota Twins
26 Sep 2025Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies3–1Philadelphia Phillies
21 Mar 2025Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies6–3Philadelphia Phillies
10 Mar 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins1–4Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 19 meetings on file.

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