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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 3:57AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Wed 2 Sep 2026, 7:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
62.7%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Philadelphia Phillies 1.5 Spread - 1st 5 Innings -294

The model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $134 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 62.7% across 51 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 2 Sep 2026, 7:40PM at Chase Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win74.8%
The price says74.7%
Best price-294
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies 1.5 High75% chance -294
Spread - 1st 5 Innings High93% chance —
Spread Long-shot23% chance —
Spread High79% chance —
Spread High96% chance —
Spread High95% chance —
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot15% chance —
Spread Long-shot15% chance —
Spread High92% chance —
Batter - Doubles × 1 prop Highup to 75% —
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 94% —
Batter - Walks × 11 props Highup to 98% —
Batter - Stolen Bases × 5 props Long-shotup to 30% —
Batter - Home Runs × 3 props Long-shotup to 29% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks last met on Wed 2 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Philadelphia Phillies 1.5 · $100 returned $134

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread - 1st 5 Innings
Philadelphia Phillies
1.5
-294
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Corbin Carroll RFDay-to-day
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Gallen SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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The preview

Written 3 Sep

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks, September 3, 2026

On September 3, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies +2 (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Tim Tawa Under 0.5 RBIs (-357)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Tim Tawa Under 0.5 RBIs (-357). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at -357 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

James McCann (NYM) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-244)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is James McCann (NYM) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-244). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at -244 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

J.T. Realmuto (PHI) Under 0.5 Hits (+148)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is J.T. Realmuto (PHI) Under 0.5 Hits (+148). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at +148 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies +2 (-417)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies +2 (-417). That is a alternate spreads bet. It was priced at -417 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 0.5 totals 1st 1 innings (-122)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 0.5 totals 1st 1 innings (-122). That is a totals 1st 1 innings bet. It was priced at -122 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: Under 12.5 Total Runs (-435)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: Under 12.5 Total Runs (-435). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -435 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 3 Sep

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 3, 2026

On September 3, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Nolan Arenado (STL) Under 0.5 Walks (-270)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Nolan Arenado (STL) Under 0.5 Walks (-270). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ildemaro Vargas (WSN) Under 0.5 Walks (-476)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ildemaro Vargas (WSN) Under 0.5 Walks (-476). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -476 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jordan Lawlar Under 0.5 Walks (-333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jordan Lawlar Under 0.5 Walks (-333). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Bryce Harper PHI Batter - Doubles
Andrew Painter PHI Pitcher - Walks
Nolan Arenado STL Batter - Walks
Alec Bohm PHI Batter - Stolen Bases
Gabriel Moreno Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineArizona DiamondbacksNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4Free board13-12

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineArizona Diamondbacks run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

Arizona Diamondbacks spread form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent results

Arizona Diamondbacks have won 4 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3KCAway
W5–4KCAway
W3–2HOUAway
L1–3HOUAway
W4–3HOUAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L5–6HOUHome
W1–0ATLHome
L4–5ATLHome
W4–2ATLHome
L2–5ATLHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 1.2 runs per game (1-4) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 1.4 (3-2); Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 0.2 for Philadelphia Phillies.

1.2
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
1.4
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesArizona DiamondbacksPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game1.21.4
Hits / game2.24.0
Home runs / game0.00.4
Walks drawn / game0.61.6
Batter K / game2.40.6
Earned runs allowed / game1.20.2
Pitching K / game1.22.4
Walks allowed / game1.80.6
L5 record1-43-2

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Arizona Diamondbacks won 3, Philadelphia Phillies won 3.

DateArizona DiamondbacksPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Sep 217Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 210Arizona Diamondbacks
Sep 112Philadelphia Phillies
Apr 1243Arizona Diamondbacks
Apr 1134Philadelphia Phillies
Apr 1054Arizona Diamondbacks

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Corbin Carroll RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryne Nelson SPOUT
Ryan Thompson RPOUT
A.J. Puk RPOUT
Andrew Saalfrank RPOUT
Cristian Mena RPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction for September 3, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 3, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies +2 (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
51
Total Picks
62.7%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
02 Sep 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -3.5 ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies +2.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Moneyline Philadelphia Phillies ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies 1.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies -3.5 ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -4.5 ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies 2.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 10 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 6 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 12 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies -0.5 ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies +2 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Diamondbacks, or as Diamondbacks vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 2 September 2026 at Chase Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 62.7% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 33 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 17–16 across the last 33 meetings · these games average 9.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Sep 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–7Philadelphia Phillies
1 Sep 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–2Philadelphia Phillies
31 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–2Philadelphia Phillies
12 Apr 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies3–4Arizona Diamondbacks
11 Apr 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies4–3Philadelphia Phillies
10 Apr 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies4–5Arizona Diamondbacks
21 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks9–2Arizona Diamondbacks
20 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks4–3Arizona Diamondbacks
19 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks2–8Philadelphia Phillies
4 May 2025Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies9–11Arizona Diamondbacks

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 33 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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