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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nolan Arenado is Over 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On Batter - Stolen Bases, our numbers say this bet wins about 77 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 77%, implied 3%, edge +20.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 Hlanded 3 of the last 3
Over 0.50 hits runs rbislanded 3 of the last 3
Over 0.50 total baseslanded 3 of the last 3

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
MLB

Nolan Arenado

STL

+20.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Over 0.5 +2900 (30.00) · $100→$3,000
+20.3% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri · Outdoor
Wed 9 Sep, 11:40PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts unders: 77 of 124 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
24 in 100
Predicted
0.1 Batter - Stolen Bases
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 23.6% · the book's price implies 3.3% · gap +20.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases23.6%77.2%3.3%1.30+20.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games3/3
Last 10 games3/3

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AI Analysis

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Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 Batter - Stolen Bases (+2900)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Nolan Arenado has a solid chance to steal a base in this game. The Kansas City Royals have struggled lately, averaging just under one run behind their opponents in the last 12 games. However, when it comes to facing left-handed pitchers, Arenado has shown he can be a bit more effective, and the Diamondbacks have had a decent record against lefties this season. The risk here is that Arenado hasn't been hitting consistently at Kauffman Stadium, averaging less than one hit per game. Still, with the odds being so high, it's worth a shot. If he gets on base, he might just surprise us and make a run for that stolen base.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Recent form (last 5 games)

Nolan Arenado is averaging 0.6 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.2 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

0.6
Hits
0.0
HR
0.2
RBI
0.2
Runs
0.8
Walks
0.6
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Hits Runs Rbis

Nolan Arenado has gone over 0.5 hits runs rbis in 100% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o0.5100%
o1.567%
o2.567%
o3.567%
o4.567%

Home / away and opponent splits

Nolan Arenado is averaging 0.6 hits per game over his last 5 and 0.6 in away games, including his recent form against CHC.

0.6
Hits · Overall
0.6
Hits · Away
1.4
Hits · vs CHC
0.0
HR · Overall
0.0
HR · Away
0.0
HR · vs CHC
Quick answers:How many home runs does Nolan Arenado hit?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -167 ✓ HIT
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Singles 0.5 Under -123 ✓ HIT
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Runs Scored 0.5 Under -182 ✓ HIT
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - RBIs — — — Pending
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs — — — Pending
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Doubles — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nolan Arenado (STL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nolan Arenado is Over 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.3% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals on Wednesday 9 September at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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