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Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Wed 26 Aug 2026, 7:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Chicago Cubs -3 Spread +318

The model graded 70 markets for Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $418 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 26 Aug 2026, 7:40PM at Chase Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win23.6%
The price says25.8%
Best price+318
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Chicago Cubs -3 Long-shot24% chance +318
Spread Long-shot29% chance
Spread Long-shot37% chance
Spread Lean59% chance
Total Runs Long-shot24% chance
Spread Long-shot12% chance
Total Runs Long-shot38% chance
Spread High67% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot5% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 85%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 77%
Batter - Walks × 10 props Highup to 98%
Batter - Runs Scored × 8 props Highup to 76%
Batter - Hits × 6 props Highup to 84%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks last met on Wed 26 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Chicago Cubs -4.5 · $100 returned $450

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Chicago Cubs
-2.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Kevin Gausman SP

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Corbin Carroll RFDay-to-day
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Gallen SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Clay Holmes NYY Pitcher - Strikeouts
Matthew Boyd CLE Pitcher - Walks
Ryan Waldschmidt Batter - Walks
Nico Hoerner Batter - Walks
Miguel Amaya Batter - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineArizona DiamondbacksNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L51-4Free board13-12

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineArizona Diamondbacks run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L51-4

Arizona Diamondbacks spread form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
1.3runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L51-4

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent results

Arizona Diamondbacks have won 4 of their last 5 games; Chicago Cubs have won 2 of their last 5.

Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3KCAway
W5–4KCAway
W3–2HOUAway
L1–3HOUAway
W4–3HOUAway
Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–4MILAway
L3–4MILAway
L3–10MIAAway
W6–5MIAAway
W6–1MIAAway

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 1.6 runs per game (1-4) while Chicago Cubs are at 3.6 (3-2); Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are allowing 2.4 earned runs per game versus 1.0 for Chicago Cubs.

1.6
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
3.6
Chicago Cubs runs/G
Last 5 gamesArizona DiamondbacksChicago Cubs
Runs / game1.63.6
Hits / game3.43.4
Home runs / game0.40.8
Walks drawn / game0.60.6
Batter K / game1.01.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.41.0
Pitching K / game2.22.0
Walks allowed / game1.60.6
L5 record1-43-2

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent meetings

These two have met 8 times recently: Arizona Diamondbacks won 3, Chicago Cubs won 5.

DateArizona DiamondbacksChicago CubsWinner
Aug 2654Arizona Diamondbacks
Aug 2620Arizona Diamondbacks
Aug 2507Chicago Cubs
May 348Chicago Cubs
May 202Chicago Cubs
May 156Chicago Cubs
Mar 18168Arizona Diamondbacks
Mar 518Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Corbin Carroll RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryne Nelson SPOUT
Ryan Thompson RPOUT
A.J. Puk RPOUT
Andrew Saalfrank RPOUT
Cristian Mena RPOUT
Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Dansby Swanson SSOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks — model preview

Our Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction for August 27, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 27, 2026 our model has run Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 RBIs (-370), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Spread Chicago Cubs +1.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Chicago Cubs ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Spread Chicago Cubs +2.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Chicago Cubs -2.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Chicago Cubs 0.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cubs vs Diamondbacks, or as Diamondbacks vs Cubs. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 26 August 2026 at Chase Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 34 meetings on record
Arizona Diamondbacks 18–16 across the last 34 meetings · these games average 9.4 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Aug 2026Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks5–4Arizona Diamondbacks
25 Aug 2026Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks0–7Chicago Cubs
24 Aug 2026Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks0–7Chicago Cubs
3 May 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs8–4Chicago Cubs
2 May 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs2–0Chicago Cubs
1 May 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs6–5Chicago Cubs
18 Mar 2026Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks16–8Arizona Diamondbacks
5 Mar 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs8–1Chicago Cubs
20 Apr 2025Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs2–3Arizona Diamondbacks
19 Apr 2025Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs6–2Chicago Cubs

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 34 meetings on file.

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