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Model picks & player props
St. Louis Cardinals
VS
Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:28AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 7:15PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 2.5 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings +350

The model graded 70 markets for St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $450 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 7:15PM at Wrigley Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win21.7%
The price says22.3%
Best price+350
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 2.5 Long-shot22% chance +350
Total Runs Long-shot30% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Lean47% chance
Total Runs Lean49% chance
Total Runs Long-shot23% chance
Spread Long-shot25% chance
Total Runs Lean45% chance
Total Runs Lean40% chance
Total Runs Lean59% chance
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 89%
Batter - Walks × 11 props Highup to 95%
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Highup to 79%
Batter - Singles × 6 props Highup to 91%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 6 props Highup to 86%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs last met on Sun 16 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
St. Louis Cardinals -3.5 · $100 returned $800

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
Under
2.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Masyn Winn SSDay-to-day
  • Peter Strzelecki RPOut
  • JJ Wetherholt 2BOut
  • Hunter Dobbins SPOut
  • Blaze Jordan 3BOut
  • Everson Pereira RFOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut

Probable pitcher

Andre Pallante SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Kevin Gausman SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Hunter Dobbins Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Michael Busch CHC Batter - Walks
Hunter Dobbins Pitcher - Earned Runs
Nico Hoerner CHC Batter - Singles
Nico Hoerner CHC Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L52-3Free board14-14

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L52-3

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
2.0runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L52-3

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 1 of their last 5 games; St. Louis Cardinals have won 1 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L6–8MILAway
L3–4MILAway
L3–4MILAway
L3–10MIAAway
W6–5MIAAway
St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2SFAway
L6–7SFAway
L4–5SFAway
L7–10COLAway
W10–8COLAway

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 0.6 runs per game (1-4) while St. Louis Cardinals are at 1.8 (3-2); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 1.0 for St. Louis Cardinals.

0.6
Chicago Cubs runs/G
1.8
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals
Runs / game0.61.8
Hits / game0.61.8
Home runs / game0.20.0
Walks drawn / game1.40.4
Batter K / game2.21.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.41.0
Pitching K / game1.20.6
Walks allowed / game0.20.4
L5 record1-43-2

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 5, St. Louis Cardinals won 5.

DateChicago CubsSt. Louis CardinalsWinner
Aug 16411St. Louis Cardinals
Aug 1548St. Louis Cardinals
Aug 1430Chicago Cubs
Jul 3042Chicago Cubs
Jul 2923St. Louis Cardinals
Jul 28102Chicago Cubs
Jul 2773Chicago Cubs
Jul 503St. Louis Cardinals
Jul 564Chicago Cubs
Jul 3117St. Louis Cardinals

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Dansby Swanson SSOUT
St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Masyn Winn SSDAY-TO-DAY
Peter Strzelecki RPOUT
JJ Wetherholt 2BOUT
Hunter Dobbins SPOUT
Blaze Jordan 3BOUT
Everson Pereira RFOUT
Max Rajcic RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Our St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs prediction for August 17, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 17, 2026 our model has run St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Carson Kelly (DET) Under 0.5 RBIs (-312), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals -0.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals 1.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals -2.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals -2.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Moneyline St. Louis Cardinals ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals 0.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals -2 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cardinals vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Cardinals. The most recent game between them was Sunday 16 August 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 53 meetings on record
Chicago Cubs 28–25 across the last 53 meetings · these games average 8.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
16 Aug 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs4–11St. Louis Cardinals
15 Aug 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs4–8St. Louis Cardinals
14 Aug 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs3–0Chicago Cubs
30 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals2–4Chicago Cubs
29 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals3–2St. Louis Cardinals
28 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals2–10Chicago Cubs
27 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals3–7Chicago Cubs
5 Jul 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs6–4Chicago Cubs
4 Jul 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs0–3St. Louis Cardinals
3 Jul 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs1–17St. Louis Cardinals

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 53 meetings on file.

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