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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:49AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Thu 20 Aug 2026, 10:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 5.5 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings +188

The model graded 70 markets for New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $288 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 20 Aug 2026, 10:35PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win47.4%
The price says32.5%
Best price+188
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 Lean47% chance +188
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Lean43% chance
Total Runs Long-shot38% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot24% chance
Total Runs Long-shot32% chance
Total Runs Lean50% chance
Total Runs Long-shot27% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings High80% chance
Total Runs Long-shot27% chance
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 86%
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 2 props Highup to 86%
Batter - Runs Scored × 5 props Highup to 78%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 75%
Batter - Hits × 3 props Highup to 79%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles last met on Thu 20 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
New York Yankees -3.5 · $100 returned $420

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
Over
8.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Trent Grisham CFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut

Probable pitcher

Will Warren SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Gunnar Henderson SSDay-to-day
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Christian Franklin CFOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Luis Robert Jr. CFOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Shane Baz SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Gerrit Cole NYY Pitcher - Walks
Gerrit Cole NYY Pitcher - Earned Runs
Pete Alonso BAL Batter - Runs Scored
Kyle Bradish BAL Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Spencer Jones Batter - Hits

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA2.0Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L51-4

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA2.0Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L51-4

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
1.0runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA2.0Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L51-4

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles — recent results

Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–5CLEHome
L5–9CLEHome
W6–4CLEHome
L1–3BOSHome
L0–5BOSHome
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–1COLHome
W5–3COLHome
L3–4SDAway
L2–3SDAway
W5–1SDAway

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Baltimore Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while New York Yankees are at 0.6 (1-4); Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 0.4 for New York Yankees.

4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
0.6
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesBaltimore OriolesNew York Yankees
Runs / game4.00.6
Hits / game2.41.6
Home runs / game0.60.2
Walks drawn / game0.81.0
Batter K / game1.62.2
Earned runs allowed / game1.00.4
Pitching K / game2.41.8
Walks allowed / game0.61.4
L5 record3-21-4

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Baltimore Orioles won 2, New York Yankees won 8.

DateBaltimore OriolesNew York YankeesWinner
Aug 2016New York Yankees
Aug 1935New York Yankees
Aug 1813New York Yankees
May 1370Baltimore Orioles
May 1226New York Yankees
May 1132Baltimore Orioles
May 4112New York Yankees
May 3311New York Yankees
May 249New York Yankees
May 127New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Gunnar Henderson SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Christian Franklin CFOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Luis Robert Jr. CFOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Trent Grisham CFOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

Our New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles prediction for August 21, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 21, 2026 our model has run New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 Walks (-370), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
20 Aug 26 Spread New York Yankees -3.5 ✓ HIT
20 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Yankees 0.5 ✓ HIT
20 Aug 26 Spread New York Yankees -2 ✓ HIT
20 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Yankees -1.5 ✓ HIT
20 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
20 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
20 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
20 Aug 26 Spread New York Yankees -1 ✓ HIT
20 Aug 26 Spread New York Yankees -3 ✓ HIT
20 Aug 26 Spread New York Yankees +1 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Orioles, or as Orioles vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Thursday 20 August 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 58 meetings on record
New York Yankees 32–26 across the last 58 meetings · these games average 8.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
20 Aug 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles1–6New York Yankees
19 Aug 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles3–5New York Yankees
18 Aug 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles1–3New York Yankees
13 May 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles7–0Baltimore Orioles
12 May 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles2–6New York Yankees
11 May 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles3–2Baltimore Orioles
4 May 2026Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees12–1New York Yankees
3 May 2026Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees11–3New York Yankees
2 May 2026Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees9–4New York Yankees
1 May 2026Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees7–2New York Yankees

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 58 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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