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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:45AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Rogers Centre, Toronto
Indoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 5:37PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 5 Total Runs +271

The model graded 70 markets for New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $371 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 5:37PM at Rogers Centre.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win28.2%
The price says28.3%
Best price+271
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 5 Long-shot28% chance +271
Spread Long-shot13% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot32% chance
Spread Long-shot24% chance
Spread Long-shot20% chance
Spread Long-shot17% chance
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Lean40% chance
Total Runs Lean45% chance
Total Runs Long-shot36% chance
Batter - Walks × 11 props Highup to 95%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 8 props Highup to 89%
Batter - Singles × 9 props Highup to 89%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 84%
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 79%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays last met on Sun 16 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Over 12 · $100 returned $468

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
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CASHED
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
9.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Trent Grisham CFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut

Probable pitcher

Will Warren SP

Toronto Blue Jays

  • George Springer DHDay-to-day
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Shane Bieber SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Jake Bloss SPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Braydon Fisher SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Trent Grisham SDP Batter - Walks
Ben Rice NYY Batter - Walks
Ernie Clement TOR Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Charles McAdoo Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Kazuma Okamoto TOR Batter - Walks

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineToronto Blue JaysNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.8L5 RA1.2Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2Free board17-14

Toronto Blue Jays moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

Run LineToronto Blue Jays run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.8L5 RA1.2Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2

Toronto Blue Jays spread form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Toronto Blue Jays vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Toronto Blue Jays total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsToronto Blue Jays team totalNo line posted
2.8runs we expect
L5 RF4.8L5 RA1.2Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2

Toronto Blue Jays team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays — recent results

Toronto Blue Jays have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2ATHAway
L0–2ATHAway
L5–6ATHAway
L1–6KCAway
W9–2KCAway
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–1COLHome
W5–3COLHome
L3–4SDAway
L2–3SDAway
W5–1SDAway

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Toronto Blue Jays are scoring 0.2 runs per game (1-4) while New York Yankees are at 0.0 (0-5); Toronto Blue Jays pitchers are allowing 0.2 earned runs per game versus 0.8 for New York Yankees.

0.2
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
0.0
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesToronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees
Runs / game0.20.0
Hits / game1.01.4
Home runs / game0.00.0
Walks drawn / game1.00.2
Batter K / game0.61.2
Earned runs allowed / game0.20.8
Pitching K / game0.61.6
Walks allowed / game0.61.2
L5 record1-40-5

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Toronto Blue Jays won 5, New York Yankees won 5.

DateToronto Blue JaysNew York YankeesWinner
Aug 2338New York Yankees
Aug 2243Toronto Blue Jays
Aug 2113New York Yankees
Aug 1634New York Yankees
Aug 1541Toronto Blue Jays
Aug 1431Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 1438New York Yankees
Jun 1313New York Yankees
Jun 1285Toronto Blue Jays
May 2120Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
George Springer DHDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Santander RFOUT
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Cody Ponce SPOUT
Patrick Corbin SPOUT
Shane Bieber SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Jonatan Clase LFOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Trent Grisham CFOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays — model preview

Our New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays prediction for August 17, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 17, 2026 our model has run New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is George Springer (TOR) Under 0.5 RBIs (-286), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 5.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 6 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Toronto Blue Jays 1.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Toronto Blue Jays 0.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Jays, or as Jays vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Sunday 16 August 2026 at Rogers Centre. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 71 meetings on record
New York Yankees 36–35 across the last 71 meetings · these games average 9.4 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
23 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees8–3New York Yankees
22 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees3–4Toronto Blue Jays
21 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees3–1New York Yankees
16 Aug 2026New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays3–4New York Yankees
15 Aug 2026New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays4–1Toronto Blue Jays
14 Aug 2026New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays3–1Toronto Blue Jays
14 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays3–8New York Yankees
13 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays1–3New York Yankees
12 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays8–5Toronto Blue Jays
21 May 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees0–2Toronto Blue Jays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 71 meetings on file.

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