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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
New York Yankees

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:43AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Thu 27 Aug 2026, 11:05PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 8.5 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings +630

The model graded 70 markets for Houston Astros vs New York Yankees (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $730 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 27 Aug 2026, 11:05PM at Yankee Stadium.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win12.1%
The price says13.5%
Best price+630
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 8.5 Long-shot12% chance +630
Spread Long-shot18% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot24% chance
Spread Long-shot31% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot12% chance
Spread Long-shot11% chance
Total Runs Long-shot22% chance
Total Runs Long-shot27% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Lean41% chance
Batter - Walks × 9 props Highup to 98%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 86%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 7 props Highup to 64%
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 66%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Leanup to 56%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Houston Astros and New York Yankees last met on Thu 27 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Under 1.5 · $100 returned $680

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
Over
8.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Steven Okert RPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Hunter Brown SP

New York Yankees

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Trent Grisham CFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut

Probable pitcher

Will Warren SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Austin Wells Batter - Walks
Gerrit Cole NYY Pitcher - Walks
Austin Wells Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Cody Bellinger CHC Batter - Walks
Yainer Diaz HOU Batter - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York YankeesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.8Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L54-1Free board21-20

New York Yankees moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Yankees run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.8Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L54-1

New York Yankees spread form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

New York Yankees total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
1.3runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.8Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L54-1

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ New York Yankees — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Houston Astros at New York Yankees — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs New York Yankees — recent results

New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–1COLHome
W5–3COLHome
L3–4SDAway
L2–3SDAway
W5–1SDAway
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L7–11PHIAway
W6–5PHIAway
L2–3ARIHome
W3–1ARIHome
L3–4ARIHome

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 1.4 runs per game (2-3) while Houston Astros are at 1.8 (3-2); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 0.6 earned runs per game versus 0.6 for Houston Astros.

1.4
New York Yankees runs/G
1.8
Houston Astros runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesHouston Astros
Runs / game1.41.8
Hits / game1.82.6
Home runs / game0.20.4
Walks drawn / game1.41.2
Batter K / game2.02.0
Earned runs allowed / game0.60.6
Pitching K / game1.02.2
Walks allowed / game0.60.6
L5 record2-33-2

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: New York Yankees won 3, Houston Astros won 3.

DateNew York YankeesHouston AstrosWinner
Aug 2715Houston Astros
Aug 2693New York Yankees
Aug 2579Houston Astros
Apr 2647Houston Astros
Apr 25124New York Yankees
Apr 2583New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Trent Grisham CFOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Steven Okert RPOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Houston Astros @ New York Yankees — model preview

Our Houston Astros at New York Yankees prediction for August 28, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 28, 2026 our model has run Houston Astros at New York Yankees and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Jose Altuve (HOU) Under 0.5 RBIs (-323), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
27 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros 0.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 1.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros -2 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros -1 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros 1.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros +1.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 2.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros -2.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros -0.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs New York Yankees in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Yankees, or as Yankees vs Astros. The most recent game between them was Thursday 27 August 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 28 meetings on record
New York Yankees 18–10 across the last 28 meetings · these games average 10.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
27 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ New York Yankees1–5Houston Astros
26 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ New York Yankees9–3New York Yankees
25 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ New York Yankees7–9Houston Astros
26 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Houston Astros7–4Houston Astros
25 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Houston Astros4–12New York Yankees
24 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Houston Astros4–12New York Yankees
4 Sep 2025New York Yankees @ Houston Astros4–8New York Yankees
3 Sep 2025New York Yankees @ Houston Astros8–7Houston Astros
2 Sep 2025New York Yankees @ Houston Astros1–7New York Yankees
10 Aug 2025Houston Astros @ New York Yankees1–7Houston Astros

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 28 meetings on file.

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