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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
New York Mets

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:43AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 7:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
55.0%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Houston Astros 3.5 Spread -526

The model graded 70 markets for Houston Astros vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $119 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 55.0% across 40 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 30 Aug 2026, 7:10PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win81.9%
The price says79.2%
Best price-526
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Houston Astros 3.5 High82% chance -526
Spread High87% chance —
Spread - 1st 5 Innings High69% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot5% chance —
Moneyline Lean46% chance —
Spread Long-shot34% chance —
Spread Long-shot31% chance —
Spread Long-shot36% chance —
Spread Long-shot22% chance —
Batter - Doubles × 9 props Highup to 86% —
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 8 props Leanup to 59% —
Batter - RBIs × 9 props —
Batter - Walks × 3 props —
Batter - Runs Scored × 5 props —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

Houston Astros and New York Mets last met on Sun 30 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Houston Astros
-4.5
+540
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Steven Okert RPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Hunter Brown SP

New York Mets

  • Brett Baty 3BDay-to-day
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Robert Stock SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:49PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 31 Aug

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction and Picks, August 31, 2026

On August 31, 2026 our model has run Houston Astros at New York Mets and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Marcus Semien (TOR) Under 0.5 RBIs (-323), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Marcus Semien (TOR) Under 0.5 RBIs (-323)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Marcus Semien (TOR) Under 0.5 RBIs (-323). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at -323 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Cam Smith Under 0.5 Singles (-172)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Cam Smith Under 0.5 Singles (-172). That is a Singles bet. It was priced at -172 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.81 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 Singles (-250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 Singles (-250). That is a Singles bet. It was priced at -250 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Mets vs Houston Astros: Under 6.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-233)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Mets play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Mets vs Houston Astros: Under 6.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-233). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -233 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.29 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Mets vs Houston Astros: Under 5.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-145)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Mets play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Mets vs Houston Astros: Under 5.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-145). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Mets vs Houston Astros: Under 4.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (+114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Mets play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Mets vs Houston Astros: Under 4.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (+114). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 31 Aug

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, August 31, 2026

On August 31, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Houston Astros at New York Mets is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) Under 0.5 Walks (-250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) Under 0.5 Walks (-250). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -250 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Christian Walker (HOU) Under 0.5 Walks (-270)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Christian Walker (HOU) Under 0.5 Walks (-270). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Cam Smith Under 0.5 Walks (-303)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Cam Smith Under 0.5 Walks (-303). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -303 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
A.J. Ewing Batter - Doubles
Brett Baty NYM Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Christian Walker HOU Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Christian Walker HOU Batter - RBIs
Christian Walker HOU Batter - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L52-3

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L52-3

New York Mets spread form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L52-3

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Houston Astros at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W15–14MIAAway
W7–5MIAAway
W9–4MIAAway
W4–2SFHome
L5–9SFHome
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L7–11PHIAway
W6–5PHIAway
L2–3ARIHome
W3–1ARIHome
L3–4ARIHome

Houston Astros vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 0.2 runs per game (0-5) while Houston Astros are at 0.6 (2-3); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 0.4 for Houston Astros.

0.2
New York Mets runs/G
0.6
Houston Astros runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsHouston Astros
Runs / game0.20.6
Hits / game0.81.4
Home runs / game0.00.2
Walks drawn / game0.20.6
Batter K / game1.20.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.00.4
Pitching K / game0.60.8
Walks allowed / game0.80.4
L5 record0-52-3

Houston Astros vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 9 times recently: New York Mets won 4, Houston Astros won 4.

DateNew York MetsHouston AstrosWinner
Aug 3036Houston Astros
Aug 2962New York Mets
Aug 2813Houston Astros
Mar 2157Houston Astros
Mar 1962New York Mets
Mar 1428Houston Astros
Mar 143New York Mets
Feb 2650New York Mets
Feb 2466Draw

Who’s out or in doubt

11 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Brett Baty 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Steven Okert RPOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Houston Astros @ New York Mets — model preview

Our Houston Astros at New York Mets prediction for August 31, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 31, 2026 our model has run Houston Astros at New York Mets and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Marcus Semien (TOR) Under 0.5 RBIs (-323), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 4 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
40
Total Picks
55.0%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
30 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 12 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 6.5 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros -3.5 ✗ MISS
30 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros -1.5 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 11.5 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros 2.5 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✗ MISS
30 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✗ MISS
30 Aug 26 Moneyline Houston Astros ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 10 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros -2.5 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros ✗ MISS
30 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros 0.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Mets, or as Mets vs Astros. The most recent game between them was Sunday 30 August 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 55.0% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 35 meetings on record
Houston Astros 18–15 across the last 35 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 8.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
30 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ New York Mets3–6Houston Astros
29 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ New York Mets6–2New York Mets
28 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ New York Mets1–3Houston Astros
21 Mar 2026Houston Astros @ New York Mets5–7Houston Astros
19 Mar 2026New York Mets @ Houston Astros2–6New York Mets
14 Mar 2026New York Mets @ Houston Astros8–2Houston Astros
1 Mar 2026Houston Astros @ New York Mets4–3New York Mets
26 Feb 2026New York Mets @ Houston Astros0–5New York Mets
24 Feb 2026Houston Astros @ New York Mets6–6Draw
29 Mar 2025New York Mets @ Houston Astros2–1Houston Astros

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 35 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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