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Model picks & player props
Milwaukee Brewers
VS
New York Mets

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 3:57AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Thu 27 Aug 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
60.0%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Mets Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings +180

The model graded 70 markets for Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $280 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 60.0% across 40 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 27 Aug 2026, 11:10PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win33.6%
The price says35.4%
Best price+180
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets Long-shot34% chance +180
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot16% chance
Spread Long-shot33% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot17% chance
Total Runs Long-shot26% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot12% chance
Total Runs Long-shot13% chance
Total Runs Long-shot11% chance
Total Runs Long-shot38% chance
Pitcher - Walks × 2 props Highup to 84%
Pitcher - Outs × 1 prop Highup to 99%
Batter - Walks × 11 props Highup to 98%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 7 props Highup to 64%
Batter - Hits × 4 props Highup to 71%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets last met on Thu 27 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Over 7.5 · $100 returned $450

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
New York Mets
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Jake Bauers 1BDay-to-day
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Grant Anderson RPOut
  • Bryse Wilson RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Logan Henderson SP

New York Mets

  • Brett Baty 3BDay-to-day
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Robert Stock SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:49PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Sean Manaea Pitcher - Walks
Jacob Misiorowski Pitcher - Outs
Joey Ortiz MIL Batter - Walks
Jacob Misiorowski MIL Pitcher - Walks
Cooper Pratt Batter - Walks

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs Milwaukee Brewers L52-3

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs Milwaukee Brewers L52-3

New York Mets spread form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Milwaukee BrewersNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
2.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs Milwaukee Brewers L52-3

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; Milwaukee Brewers have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–5MIAAway
W9–4MIAAway
W4–2SFHome
L5–9SFHome
W10–6SFHome
Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3CHCHome
W4–3CHCHome
L8–12CINAway
L3–5CINAway
W10–7CINAway

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 0.8 runs per game (1-4) while Milwaukee Brewers are at 1.6 (3-2); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 0.4 for Milwaukee Brewers.

0.8
New York Mets runs/G
1.6
Milwaukee Brewers runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsMilwaukee Brewers
Runs / game0.81.6
Hits / game2.23.6
Home runs / game0.20.0
Walks drawn / game0.20.6
Batter K / game1.82.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.00.4
Pitching K / game1.01.8
Walks allowed / game0.80.6
L5 record1-43-2

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: New York Mets won 2, Milwaukee Brewers won 4.

DateNew York MetsMilwaukee BrewersWinner
Aug 2728Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 2618Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 2532New York Mets
Jul 2234Milwaukee Brewers
Jul 2140New York Mets
Jul 2038Milwaukee Brewers

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Brett Baty 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Jake Bauers 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Grant Anderson RPOUT
Bryse Wilson RPOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT
Quinn Priester SPOUT
Angel Zerpa RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets — model preview

Our Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets prediction for August 28, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 28, 2026 our model has run Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 Walks (-270), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
40
Total Picks
60.0%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
27 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 8.5 ✗ MISS
27 Aug 26 Spread New York Mets -1 ✗ MISS
27 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 7.5 ✗ MISS
27 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets ✗ MISS
27 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✗ MISS
27 Aug 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -3 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets -1.5 ✗ MISS
27 Aug 26 Moneyline New York Mets ✗ MISS
27 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
27 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets 2.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Brewers vs Mets, or as Mets vs Brewers. The most recent game between them was Thursday 27 August 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 60.0% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 27 meetings on record
Milwaukee Brewers 20–7 across the last 27 meetings · these games average 8.0 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
27 Aug 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets2–8Milwaukee Brewers
26 Aug 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets1–8Milwaukee Brewers
25 Aug 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets3–2New York Mets
22 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers4–3Milwaukee Brewers
21 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers0–4New York Mets
20 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers8–3Milwaukee Brewers
10 Aug 2025New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers7–6Milwaukee Brewers
9 Aug 2025New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers7–4Milwaukee Brewers
8 Aug 2025New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers3–2Milwaukee Brewers
3 Jul 2025Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets3–2New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 27 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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