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Model picks & player props
San Francisco Giants
VS
New York Mets

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:41AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
38
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 5 Total Runs +439

The model graded 58 markets for San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $539 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 6 Sep 2026, 5:40PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win25.1%
The price says17.7%
Best price+439
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 5 Long-shot25% chance +439
Total Runs High89% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot34% chance —
Spread Long-shot23% chance —
Total Runs High80% chance —
Total Runs High68% chance —
Total Runs Lean43% chance —
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Lean48% chance —
Spread Long-shot30% chance —
Batter - Doubles × 3 props Highup to 85% —
Batter - Total Bases × 2 props Leanup to 40% —
Batter - Home Runs × 4 props Leanup to 52% —
Batter - RBIs × 3 props Leanup to 50% —
Batter - Stolen Bases × 5 props Long-shotup to 28% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

San Francisco Giants and New York Mets last met on Sun 6 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Over 8.5 · $100 returned $680

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
11.5
-385
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 38 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

San Francisco Giants

  • Carson Whisenhunt SPOut
  • Victor Bericoto LFOut
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • JT Brubaker RPOut
  • Jesus Rodriguez COut
  • Keaton Winn RPOut
  • Adrian Houser SPOut
  • Matt Gage RPOut
  • Sam Hentges RPOut
  • Casey Schmitt LFOut
  • Willy Adames SSOut
  • Joel Peguero RPOut
  • Daniel Susac COut
  • Harrison Bader CFOut
  • Matt Chapman 3BOut
  • Trevor McDonald SPOut
  • Rowan Wick RPOut
  • Hayden Birdsong RPOut
  • Randy Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jose Butto RPOut

Probable pitcher

Blade Tidwell SP

New York Mets

  • Brett Baty 3BDay-to-day
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Robert Stock SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:49PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 26 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability26 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 7 Sep

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Prediction and Picks, September 7, 2026

On September 7, 2026 our model has run San Francisco Giants at New York Mets and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is A.J. Ewing (NYM) Under 0.5 RBIs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-270)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play San Francisco Giants in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-270). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at -270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

A.J. Ewing (NYM) Under 0.5 RBIs (-333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play San Francisco Giants in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is A.J. Ewing (NYM) Under 0.5 RBIs (-333). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-323)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play San Francisco Giants in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-323). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at -323 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants: Over 0.5 totals 1st 1 innings (-111)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Mets play San Francisco Giants in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants: Over 0.5 totals 1st 1 innings (-111). That is a totals 1st 1 innings bet. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.01 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants: Over 4.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (+100)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Mets play San Francisco Giants in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants: Over 4.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (+100). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +100 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants: Over 3.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-175)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Mets play San Francisco Giants in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants: Over 3.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-175). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -175 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.71 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 7 Sep

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 7, 2026

On September 7, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for San Francisco Giants at New York Mets is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Jonah Cox Under 0.5 Walks (-333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play San Francisco Giants in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jonah Cox Under 0.5 Walks (-333). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 Walks (-345)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play San Francisco Giants in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 Walks (-345). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -345 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Mark Vientos (NYM) Under 0.5 Walks (-357)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

New York Mets play San Francisco Giants in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Mark Vientos (NYM) Under 0.5 Walks (-357). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -357 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Christian Koss Batter - Doubles
Shay Whitcomb Batter - Doubles
Rafael Devers BOS Batter - Total Bases
Rafael Devers BOS Batter - Home Runs
Christian Koss Batter - RBIs

+ 38 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs San Francisco Giants L52-3

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs San Francisco Giants L52-3

New York Mets spread form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
1.7runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs San Francisco Giants L52-3

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 58 betting markets for San Francisco Giants at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 38 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
38
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 58 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 57 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; San Francisco Giants have won 4 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W15–14MIAAway
W7–5MIAAway
W9–4MIAAway
W4–2SFHome
L5–9SFHome
San Francisco Giants — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1STLHome
W7–6STLHome
W5–4STLHome
L2–4NYMAway
W9–5NYMAway

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: New York Mets won 5, San Francisco Giants won 2.

DateNew York MetsSan Francisco GiantsWinner
Sep 642New York Mets
Sep 559San Francisco Giants
Sep 4106New York Mets
Apr 590New York Mets
Apr 552New York Mets
Apr 4103New York Mets
Apr 327San Francisco Giants

Who’s out or in doubt

26 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Brett Baty 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
San Francisco Giants
PlayerStatus
Carson Whisenhunt SPOUT
Victor Bericoto LFOUT
Marcelo Mayer 2BOUT
JT Brubaker RPOUT
Jesus Rodriguez COUT
Keaton Winn RPOUT
Adrian Houser SPOUT
Matt Gage RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets — model preview

Our San Francisco Giants at New York Mets prediction for September 7, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 7, 2026 our model has run San Francisco Giants at New York Mets and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is A.J. Ewing (NYM) Under 0.5 RBIs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 11.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 11 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 10 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Spread New York Mets -1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 6.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Giants vs Mets, or as Mets vs Giants. The most recent game between them was Sunday 6 September 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 38 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 26 meetings on record
New York Mets 14–12 across the last 26 meetings · these games average 9.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Sep 2026San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets4–2New York Mets
5 Sep 2026San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets5–9San Francisco Giants
4 Sep 2026San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets10–6New York Mets
5 Apr 2026New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants2–5New York Mets
4 Apr 2026New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants3–10New York Mets
3 Apr 2026New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants7–2San Francisco Giants
2 Apr 2026New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants7–2San Francisco Giants
3 Aug 2025San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets4–12San Francisco Giants
2 Aug 2025San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets12–6New York Mets
1 Aug 2025San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets3–4San Francisco Giants

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 26 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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