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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 3:57AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Wed 2 Sep 2026, 10:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
74.4%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Mets Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings +130

The model graded 70 markets for New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $230 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 74.4% across 39 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 2 Sep 2026, 10:40PM at Tropicana Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win40.3%
The price says41.4%
Best price+130
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets Lean40% chance +130
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot5% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot35% chance —
Total Runs Lean47% chance —
Spread Long-shot15% chance —
Spread Long-shot14% chance —
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot18% chance —
Spread Long-shot22% chance —
Spread Long-shot25% chance —
Batter - Doubles × 1 prop Highup to 74% —
Batter - Stolen Bases × 6 props Highup to 87% —
Batter - Walks × 10 props Highup to 98% —
Batter - Total Bases × 2 props Leanup to 48% —
Batter - Home Runs × 2 props Long-shotup to 32% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays last met on Wed 2 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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New York Mets · $100 returned $232

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
New York Mets
+130
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Brett Baty 3BDay-to-day
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Robert Stock SP

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Taylor Walls SSOut
  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Garrett Cleavinger RPOut
  • Shane McClanahan SPOut
  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Griffin Jax SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:49PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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The preview

Written 3 Sep

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets Prediction and Picks, September 3, 2026

On September 3, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Richie Palacios Under 0.5 RBIs (-370), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Juan Soto (NYM) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-141)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Mets in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Juan Soto (NYM) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-141). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at -141 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.09 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Cedric Mullins (BAL) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-217)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Mets in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Cedric Mullins (BAL) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-217). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -217 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.61 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Richie Palacios Under 0.5 RBIs (-370)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Mets in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Richie Palacios Under 0.5 RBIs (-370). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at -370 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets: New York Mets h2h 1st 5 innings (+145)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Mets in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets: New York Mets h2h 1st 5 innings (+145). That is a h2h 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets: Over 0.5 totals 1st 1 innings (-118)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Mets in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets: Over 0.5 totals 1st 1 innings (-118). That is a totals 1st 1 innings bet. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.47 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets: New York Mets -0.5 (+185)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Mets in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets: New York Mets -0.5 (+185). That is a alternate spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +185 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 3 Sep

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 3, 2026

On September 3, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 Walks (-357)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Mets in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 Walks (-357). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -357 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jared Young Under 0.5 Walks (-385)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Mets in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jared Young Under 0.5 Walks (-385). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -385 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Chandler Simpson (TBR) Under 0.5 Walks (-417)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Mets in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Chandler Simpson (TBR) Under 0.5 Walks (-417). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -417 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Luis Torrens Batter - Doubles
Luis Torrens Batter - Stolen Bases
A.J. Ewing Batter - Walks
Liam Hicks Batter - Stolen Bases
Francisco Alvarez Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs New York Mets L54-1

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs New York Mets L54-1Free board15-15

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs New York MetsNo line posted

Tampa Bay Rays total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
3.0runs we expect
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs New York Mets L54-1

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent results

Tampa Bay Rays have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–1ATLAway
L6–8TEXAway
W7–6TEXAway
W6–3TEXAway
L0–6TEXAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–5MIAAway
W9–4MIAAway
W4–2SFHome
L5–9SFHome
W10–6SFHome

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Tampa Bay Rays won 1, New York Mets won 2.

DateTampa Bay RaysNew York MetsWinner
Sep 2410New York Mets
Sep 162Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 3123New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Taylor Walls SSOUT
Manuel Rodriguez RPOUT
Garrett Cleavinger RPOUT
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Brett Baty 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

Our New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays prediction for September 3, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 3, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Richie Palacios Under 0.5 RBIs (-370), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
39
Total Picks
74.4%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -3 ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -4 ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets -1.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Spread New York Mets -1 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -3.5 ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -2.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Rays, or as Rays vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 2 September 2026 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 74.4% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 16 meetings on record
Tampa Bay Rays 10–6 across the last 16 meetings · these games average 10.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Sep 2026New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays4–10New York Mets
1 Sep 2026New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays6–2Tampa Bay Rays
31 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays2–3New York Mets
15 Jun 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets0–9Tampa Bay Rays
14 Jun 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets4–8Tampa Bay Rays
13 Jun 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets5–7Tampa Bay Rays
17 Mar 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets0–2Tampa Bay Rays
1 Mar 2025New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays1–10New York Mets
5 May 2024New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays7–6Tampa Bay Rays
4 May 2024New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays3–1Tampa Bay Rays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 16 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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