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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
San Diego Padres

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:27AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Petco Park, San Diego
Outdoor
Mon 10 Aug 2026, 12:20AM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
57.5%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 6 Total Runs +327

The model graded 70 markets for Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $427 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 57.5% across 40 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 10 Aug 2026, 12:20AM at Petco Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win31.6%
The price says23.4%
Best price+327
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 6 Long-shot32% chance +327
Total Runs Long-shot24% chance
Spread Long-shot18% chance
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings High64% chance
Spread Long-shot13% chance
Total Runs Lean52% chance
Spread Long-shot30% chance
Total Runs Long-shot39% chance
Spread High62% chance
Batter - Total Bases × 7 props Highup to 93%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 11 props Highup to 89%
Batter - Hits × 5 props Highup to 97%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 91%
Batter - Singles × 10 props Highup to 95%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Houston Astros and San Diego Padres last met on Mon 10 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
San Diego Padres -3.5 · $100 returned $460

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
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Our call on this game: 1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Steven Okert RPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Hunter Brown SP

San Diego Padres

  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Luis Rengifo LFOut
  • Gavin Sheets 1BOut
  • Jeremiah Estrada RPOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Walker Buehler SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 10:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Yordan Alvarez HOU Batter - Total Bases
Jake Cronenworth SDP Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Jake Cronenworth SDP Batter - Total Bases
Xander Bogaerts SDP Batter - Hits
Yainer Diaz Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Diego PadresNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L51-4Free board17-12

San Diego Padres moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Diego Padres run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L51-4

San Diego Padres spread form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Diego Padres vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

San Diego Padres total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Diego Padres team totalNo line posted
1.0runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L51-4

San Diego Padres team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Houston Astros at San Diego Padres — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres — recent results

San Diego Padres have won 5 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 2 of their last 5.

San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4WSHHome
W9–2WSHHome
W3–2WSHHome
W4–3NYYHome
W3–2NYYHome
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L7–11PHIAway
W6–5PHIAway
L2–3ARIHome
W3–1ARIHome
L3–4ARIHome

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: San Diego Padres won 2, Houston Astros won 1.

DateSan Diego PadresHouston AstrosWinner
Aug 1072San Diego Padres
Aug 836Houston Astros
Aug 832San Diego Padres

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Luis Rengifo LFOUT
Gavin Sheets 1BOUT
Jeremiah Estrada RPOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Steven Okert RPOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres — model preview

Our Houston Astros at San Diego Padres prediction for August 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 10, 2026 our model has run Houston Astros at San Diego Padres and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Christian Walker (ARI) Under 0.5 Walks (-263), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 3 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
40
Total Picks
57.5%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
10 Aug 26 Spread San Diego Padres -2 ✓ HIT
10 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✗ MISS
10 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 12 ✓ HIT
10 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✗ MISS
10 Aug 26 Spread San Diego Padres -1 ✓ HIT
10 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 6.5 ✗ MISS
10 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 6 ✗ MISS
10 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros +1 ✗ MISS
10 Aug 26 Spread San Diego Padres +1.5 ✓ HIT
10 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 11.5 ✓ HIT
10 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✗ MISS
10 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
10 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 12.5 ✓ HIT
10 Aug 26 Spread San Diego Padres +1 ✓ HIT
10 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Padres, or as Padres vs Astros. The most recent game between them was Monday 10 August 2026 at Petco Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 57.5% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 13 meetings on record
Houston Astros 7–6 across the last 13 meetings · these games average 8.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
10 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres7–2San Diego Padres
9 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres7–2San Diego Padres
8 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres3–6Houston Astros
7 Aug 2026Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres3–6Houston Astros
20 Apr 2025San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros2–3San Diego Padres
19 Apr 2025San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros3–2Houston Astros
18 Apr 2025San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros6–4Houston Astros
18 Sep 2024Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres4–0San Diego Padres
17 Sep 2024Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres3–4Houston Astros
16 Sep 2024Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres3–1San Diego Padres

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 13 meetings on file.

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