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The latest Bet Better model pick for Yordan Alvarez is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On Batter - Total Bases, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100. For the numbers: model probability 56%, implied 59%, edge -2.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Under 1.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Under 1.50 BBlanded 10 of the last 10
Under 1.50 2Blanded 10 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 10, 5:27AM UTC
MLB

Yordan Alvarez

HOU

-2.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -145 (1.69) · $100→$169
-2.7% Edge
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Thu 10 Sep, 5:05PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts unders: 77 of 124 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
56 in 100
Predicted
1.2 Batter - Total Bases
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 56.5% · the book's price implies 59.2% · gap -2.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases56.5%—59.2%1.77-2.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 Batter - Total Bases (-145)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Yordan Alvarez has been a solid player this season, but his numbers suggest he might struggle today. He averages around 3 at-bats per game at Citizens Bank Park, but his recent performance shows he's been a bit off, with his expected hitting numbers being lower than what he usually produces. That makes it tough to see him getting more than one total base against the Phillies. The Phillies have been strong lately, scoring 1.4 runs more than their opponents over the last 12 games. They also match up well against left-handed hitters, and Alvarez might find it hard to break through today. This matchup is tight, so while the bet on Alvarez going under 1.5 total bases feels solid, remember he could always surprise us.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Yordan Alvarez's lines for Thu 10 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Batter Total Bases 1.5
How many home runs does Yordan Alvarez hit?

Yordan Alvarez's batter total bases line is 1.5.

Batter Hits 0.5
How many home runs does Yordan Alvarez hit?

Yordan Alvarez's batter hits line is 0.5.

Recent form (last 5 games)

Yordan Alvarez is averaging 0.6 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.4 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

0.6
Hits
0.0
HR
0.4
RBI
0.2
Runs
0.4
Walks
0.4
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Total Bases

Yordan Alvarez has gone over 1.5 total bases in 10% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.510%
o2.510%
o3.510%
o4.50%
o5.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Yordan Alvarez is averaging 0.6 hits per game over his last 5 and 0.6 in home games, including his recent form against TEX.

0.6
Hits · Overall
0.6
Hits · Home
0.8
Hits · vs TEX
0.0
HR · Overall
0.0
HR · Home
0.4
HR · vs TEX
Quick answers:How many home runs does Yordan Alvarez hit?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Singles 0.5 Under -137 ✓ HIT
08 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Runs Scored 0.5 Under -104 ✓ HIT
08 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - RBIs 0.5 Under -175 ✓ HIT
08 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
08 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs — — — Pending
08 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Hits — — — Pending

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About This Player

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Yordan Alvarez is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of -2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday 10 September at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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