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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
San Diego Padres

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:23AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Petco Park, San Diego
Outdoor
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Yankees 1 Spread -196

The model graded 70 markets for New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $151 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 6 Sep 2026, 8:10PM at Petco Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win63.0%
The price says60.2%
Best price-196
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread New York Yankees 1 High63% chance -196
Spread Long-shot19% chance —
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean53% chance —
Spread Long-shot15% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot26% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot36% chance —
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot20% chance —
Spread Long-shot9% chance —
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot40% chance —
Batter - Doubles × 2 props Highup to 75% —
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Leanup to 44% —
Batter - Home Runs × 3 props Leanup to 41% —
Batter - Stolen Bases × 8 props Long-shotup to 31% —
Batter - RBIs × 4 props Leanup to 53% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

New York Yankees and San Diego Padres last met on Sun 6 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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New York Yankees 1 · $100 returned $160

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New York Yankees
+4
-1667
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Trent Grisham CFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut

Probable pitcher

Will Warren SP

San Diego Padres

  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Luis Rengifo LFOut
  • Gavin Sheets 1BOut
  • Jeremiah Estrada RPOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Walker Buehler SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 7 Sep

San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Prediction and Picks, September 7, 2026

On September 7, 2026 our model has run New York Yankees at San Diego Padres and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Jackson Merrill (SDP) Under 0.5 RBIs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Jake Cronenworth (SDP) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-256)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jake Cronenworth (SDP) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-256). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at -256 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.91 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Dustin Harris Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+180)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Dustin Harris Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+180). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at +180 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ty France Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-208)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ty France Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-208). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at -208 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.81 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ethan Salas Under 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-116)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ethan Salas Under 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-116). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -116 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.62 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jackson Merrill (SDP) Under 0.5 RBIs (-333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jackson Merrill (SDP) Under 0.5 RBIs (-333). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees: New York Yankees +1.5 (-345)

Odds correct at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees: New York Yankees +1.5 (-345). That is a alternate spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -345 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 7 Sep

San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 7, 2026

On September 7, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for New York Yankees at San Diego Padres is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

George Lombard Jr. (NYY) Under 0.5 Walks (-333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is George Lombard Jr. (NYY) Under 0.5 Walks (-333). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jackson Merrill (SDP) Under 0.5 Walks (-455)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jackson Merrill (SDP) Under 0.5 Walks (-455). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -455 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Dustin Harris Under 0.5 Walks (-588)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Dustin Harris Under 0.5 Walks (-588). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Spencer Jones Batter - Doubles
Sung-Mun Song SDP Batter - Doubles
Jasson Domínguez Batter - Total Bases
Jasson Domínguez Batter - Home Runs
Spencer Jones Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Diego PadresNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L51-4Free board17-12

San Diego Padres moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Diego Padres run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L51-4

San Diego Padres spread form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Diego Padres vs New York YankeesNo line posted

San Diego Padres total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Diego Padres team totalNo line posted
0.9runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L51-4

San Diego Padres team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New York Yankees at San Diego Padres — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres — recent results

San Diego Padres have won 5 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4WSHHome
W9–2WSHHome
W3–2WSHHome
W4–3NYYHome
W3–2NYYHome
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–1COLHome
W5–3COLHome
L3–4SDAway
L2–3SDAway
W5–1SDAway

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: San Diego Padres won 2, New York Yankees won 1.

DateSan Diego PadresNew York YankeesWinner
Sep 643San Diego Padres
Sep 532San Diego Padres
Sep 515New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Luis Rengifo LFOUT
Gavin Sheets 1BOUT
Jeremiah Estrada RPOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Trent Grisham CFOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres — model preview

Our New York Yankees at San Diego Padres prediction for September 7, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 7, 2026 our model has run New York Yankees at San Diego Padres and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Jackson Merrill (SDP) Under 0.5 RBIs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
06 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 6 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Spread New York Yankees +2 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Spread New York Yankees +1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Padres, or as Padres vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Sunday 6 September 2026 at Petco Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 12 meetings on record
Even at 6–6 across the last 12 meetings · these games average 7.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Sep 2026New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres4–3San Diego Padres
5 Sep 2026New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres3–2San Diego Padres
4 Sep 2026New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres3–2San Diego Padres
7 May 2025San Diego Padres @ New York Yankees4–3New York Yankees
6 May 2025San Diego Padres @ New York Yankees12–3New York Yankees
5 May 2025San Diego Padres @ New York Yankees3–4San Diego Padres
26 May 2024New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres5–2San Diego Padres
25 May 2024New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres1–4New York Yankees
24 May 2024New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres0–8New York Yankees
28 May 2023San Diego Padres @ New York Yankees10–7New York Yankees

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 12 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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