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Model picks & player props
Seattle Mariners
VS
Boston Red Sox

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:39AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Wed 2 Sep 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
65.6%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 9.5 Total Runs +144

The model graded 70 markets for Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $244 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 65.6% across 32 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 2 Sep 2026, 8:10PM at Fenway Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win42.8%
The price says40.0%
Best price+144
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9.5 Lean43% chance +144
Total Runs Lean43% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot32% chance —
Total Runs Lean50% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot30% chance —
Total Runs High72% chance —
Total Runs High69% chance —
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot38% chance —
Total Runs High75% chance —
Batter - Doubles × 4 props Highup to 77% —
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Leanup to 44% —
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 93% —
Batter - Home Runs × 6 props Leanup to 41% —
Batter - RBIs × 6 props Leanup to 56% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox last met on Wed 2 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Over 9.5 · $100 returned $244

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Our call on this game: 1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
10.5
+196
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Seattle Mariners

  • Nick Davila RPOut
  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Brendan Donovan 3BOut
  • Brennen Davis CFOut
  • Colt Emerson SSOut
  • Emerson Hancock SPOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

Kade Anderson SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BOut
  • Adley Rutschman CDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Ceddanne Rafaela CFOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jake Bennett SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 10:45PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 24 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability24 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 3 Sep

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction and Picks, September 3, 2026

On September 3, 2026 our model has run Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Over 6 Total Runs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 RBIs (-208)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox play Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 RBIs (-208). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at -208 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.81 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Taylor Ward (BAL) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-200)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox play Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Taylor Ward (BAL) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-200). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at -200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Randy Arozarena (TBR) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-323)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox play Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Randy Arozarena (TBR) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-323). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -323 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Over 6 Total Runs (-333)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox play Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Over 6 Total Runs (-333). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Over 2.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-400)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox play Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Over 2.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-400). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Seattle Mariners +1 (-123)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox play Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Seattle Mariners +1 (-123). That is a alternate spreads bet. It was priced at -123 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.13 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 3 Sep

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 3, 2026

On September 3, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 Walks (-345)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox play Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 Walks (-345). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -345 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Trevor Story (BOS) Under 0.5 Walks (-417)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox play Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Trevor Story (BOS) Under 0.5 Walks (-417). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -417 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 Walks (-435)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox play Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 Walks (-435). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -435 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Cal Raleigh SEA Batter - Doubles
Josh Naylor CLE Batter - Doubles
Dominic Canzone Batter - Doubles
Randy Arozarena TBR Batter - Doubles
Josh Naylor CLE Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Seattle Mariners L54-1Free board11-9

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 4-1, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Seattle Mariners L54-1

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 4-1, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs Seattle MarinersNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
2.1runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Seattle Mariners L54-1

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.8 runs/gm.

Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox — recent results

Boston Red Sox have won 3 of their last 5 games; Seattle Mariners have won 2 of their last 5.

Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome
W3–1BALAway
W5–0BALAway
Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L5–10TEXHome
W3–2TEXHome
L2–6ATHHome
W2–0ATHHome
L6–7ATHHome

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Boston Red Sox are scoring 1.6 runs per game (2-3) while Seattle Mariners are at 1.8 (2-3); Boston Red Sox pitchers are allowing 1.6 earned runs per game versus 1.0 for Seattle Mariners.

1.6
Boston Red Sox runs/G
1.8
Seattle Mariners runs/G
Last 5 gamesBoston Red SoxSeattle Mariners
Runs / game1.61.8
Hits / game2.02.8
Home runs / game0.60.8
Walks drawn / game0.60.6
Batter K / game2.02.2
Earned runs allowed / game1.61.0
Pitching K / game2.00.8
Walks allowed / game0.81.2
L5 record2-32-3

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Boston Red Sox won 3, Seattle Mariners won 3.

DateBoston Red SoxSeattle MarinersWinner
Sep 238Seattle Mariners
Sep 169Seattle Mariners
Aug 3198Boston Red Sox
Jun 2151Boston Red Sox
Jun 2113Seattle Mariners
Jun 2062Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

24 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Willson Contreras 1BOUT
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Kutter Crawford SPOUT
Johan Oviedo SPOUT
Ceddanne Rafaela CFOUT
Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Nick Davila RPOUT
Matt Brash RPOUT
Brendan Donovan 3BOUT
Brennen Davis CFOUT
Colt Emerson SSOUT
Emerson Hancock SPOUT
Luke Raley RFOUT
Cole Wilcox RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

Our Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox prediction for September 3, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 3, 2026 our model has run Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Over 6 Total Runs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
32
Total Picks
65.6%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
02 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Seattle Mariners -1.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 6 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Moneyline Boston Red Sox ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 9.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mariners vs Sox, or as Sox vs Mariners. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 2 September 2026 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 65.6% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 25 meetings on record
Boston Red Sox 13–12 across the last 25 meetings · these games average 9.6 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Sep 2026Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox3–8Seattle Mariners
1 Sep 2026Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox6–9Seattle Mariners
31 Aug 2026Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox9–8Boston Red Sox
21 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners3–1Seattle Mariners
20 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners2–6Boston Red Sox
19 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners2–6Boston Red Sox
18 Jun 2025Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners1–3Boston Red Sox
17 Jun 2025Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners8–0Seattle Mariners
16 Jun 2025Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners0–2Boston Red Sox
24 Apr 2025Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox3–4Seattle Mariners

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 25 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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