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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Los Angeles Dodgers

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 3:57AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 2.5 Total Runs +1400

The model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $1,500 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 23 Aug 2026, 8:10PM at Dodger Stadium.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win3.6%
The price says6.7%
Best price+1400
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 2.5 Long-shot4% chance +1400
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot16% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot21% chance
Spread Long-shot19% chance
Spread Long-shot3% chance
Spread Long-shot4% chance
Spread Long-shot5% chance
Spread Long-shot1% chance
Spread Long-shot3% chance
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 93%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 87%
Batter - Walks × 12 props Highup to 98%
Batter - Runs Scored × 2 props Highup to 74%
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Highup to 72%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers last met on Sun 23 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
2.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Kirby Yates RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Lake Bachar SP

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Freddie Freeman 1BDay-to-day
  • Shohei Ohtani DHDay-to-day
  • Roki Sasaki SPOut
  • Andy Pages CFOut
  • Dalton Rushing COut
  • Edwin Diaz RPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut
  • Will Klein RPOut
  • Eric Lauer SPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Kris Bubic SPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut

Probable pitcher

Yoshinobu Yamamoto SP
Availability updated Sep 10, 2:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Blake Snell LAD Pitcher - Walks
Lake Bachar MIA Pitcher - Strikeouts
Nick Gonzales PIT Batter - Walks
Tommy Edman STL Batter - Walks
Jake Mangum PIT Batter - Walks

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineLos Angeles DodgersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1Free board13-11

Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Run LineLos Angeles Dodgers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

Los Angeles Dodgers spread form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Los Angeles Dodgers total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsLos Angeles Dodgers team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

Los Angeles Dodgers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers — recent results

Los Angeles Dodgers have won 5 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 4 of their last 5.

Los Angeles Dodgers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–3CINHome
W7–5WSHHome
W6–5WSHHome
W5–3WSHHome
W3–2STLHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–3CHWAway
W1–0LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W1–0LAAHome
W5–2SFHome

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Los Angeles Dodgers are scoring 4.8 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 1.8 (3-2); Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 1.4 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

4.8
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
1.8
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesLos Angeles DodgersPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game4.81.8
Hits / game5.43.0
Home runs / game1.00.4
Walks drawn / game1.21.0
Batter K / game2.61.2
Earned runs allowed / game1.81.4
Pitching K / game2.43.2
Walks allowed / game0.61.2
L5 record3-23-2

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Los Angeles Dodgers won 5, Pittsburgh Pirates won 1.

DateLos Angeles DodgersPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Aug 2340Los Angeles Dodgers
Aug 2254Los Angeles Dodgers
Aug 2243Los Angeles Dodgers
Jun 1186Los Angeles Dodgers
Jun 1089Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 9123Los Angeles Dodgers

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Los Angeles Dodgers
PlayerStatus
Freddie Freeman 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Shohei Ohtani DHDAY-TO-DAY
Roki Sasaki SPOUT
Andy Pages CFOUT
Dalton Rushing COUT
Edwin Diaz RPOUT
Gavin Stone SPOUT
Jake Cousins RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Kirby Yates RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers — model preview

Our Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction for August 24, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 24, 2026 our model has run Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 Singles (-217), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
23 Aug 26 Spread Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread Los Angeles Dodgers -3.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Los Angeles Dodgers -0.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Los Angeles Dodgers -3.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread Los Angeles Dodgers -3 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Dodgers, or as Dodgers vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Sunday 23 August 2026 at Dodger Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 25 meetings on record
Los Angeles Dodgers 15–10 across the last 25 meetings · these games average 10.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
23 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers4–0Los Angeles Dodgers
22 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers5–4Los Angeles Dodgers
21 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers5–4Los Angeles Dodgers
11 Jun 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates6–8Los Angeles Dodgers
10 Jun 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–8Pittsburgh Pirates
9 Jun 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–12Los Angeles Dodgers
4 Sep 2025Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–3Pittsburgh Pirates
3 Sep 2025Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–0Pittsburgh Pirates
2 Sep 2025Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–7Pittsburgh Pirates
27 Apr 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers9–2Los Angeles Dodgers

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 25 meetings on file.

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