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Model picks & player props
Detroit Tigers
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:26AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Wed 19 Aug 2026, 4:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Detroit Tigers -1.5 Spread - 1st 5 Innings +310

The model graded 70 markets for Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $410 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 19 Aug 2026, 4:35PM at PNC Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win36.7%
The price says50.0%
Best price+310
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Detroit Tigers -1.5 Long-shot37% chance +310
Total Runs Long-shot39% chance
Total Runs Long-shot23% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot18% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Lean59% chance
Total Runs High63% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot8% chance
Total Runs High73% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings High70% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 14 props Highup to 90%
Batter - Hits × 1 prop Highup to 79%
Batter - Walks × 15 props Highup to 100%
Batter - Singles × 5 props Highup to 89%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 81%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates last met on Wed 19 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Detroit Tigers -1.5 · $100 returned $390

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Our call on this game: 1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread - 1st 5 Innings
Detroit Tigers
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Detroit TigersSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Detroit Tigers

  • Jack Flaherty SPOut
  • Matt Vierling CFOut
  • Kerry Carpenter RFOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Keider Montero SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Kirby Yates RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Lake Bachar SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Henry Davis PIT Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Spencer Torkelson DET Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Jared Triolo PIT Batter - Hits
Zach McKinstry DET Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Henry Davis PIT Batter - Walks

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs Detroit Tigers L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs Detroit Tigers L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit TigersNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs Detroit Tigers L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 4 of their last 5 games; Detroit Tigers have won 3 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2CHWAway
W9–3CHWAway
W1–0LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W1–0LAAHome
Detroit Tigers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–2MINHome
L2–3MINHome
W5–4MINHome
L2–3CLEAway
W6–0CLEAway

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 2.6 runs per game (3-2) while Detroit Tigers are at 2.8 (1-4); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 3.2 for Detroit Tigers.

2.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
2.8
Detroit Tigers runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesDetroit Tigers
Runs / game2.62.8
Hits / game3.23.8
Home runs / game0.20.8
Walks drawn / game0.80.4
Batter K / game1.23.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.23.2
Pitching K / game1.61.6
Walks allowed / game0.21.4
L5 record3-21-4

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 5, Detroit Tigers won 1.

DatePittsburgh PiratesDetroit TigersWinner
Aug 1943Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 1841Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 1758Detroit Tigers
Mar 1831Pittsburgh Pirates
Mar 1375Pittsburgh Pirates
Mar 753Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Kirby Yates RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Detroit Tigers
PlayerStatus
Jack Flaherty SPOUT
Matt Vierling CFOUT
Kerry Carpenter RFOUT
Wenceel Perez RFOUT
Will Vest RPOUT
Justin Verlander SPOUT
Burch Smith RPOUT
Bailey Horn RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Our Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for August 20, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 20, 2026 our model has run Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers: Over 5.5 Total Runs (-345), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
19 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Detroit Tigers 0.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Detroit Tigers 1.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Detroit Tigers -1.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread Detroit Tigers +1.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Detroit Tigers -0.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Tigers vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Tigers. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 19 August 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 29 meetings on record
Detroit Tigers 15–12 across the last 29 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 9.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
19 Aug 2026Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–3Pittsburgh Pirates
18 Aug 2026Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–1Pittsburgh Pirates
17 Aug 2026Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–8Detroit Tigers
18 Mar 2026Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–1Pittsburgh Pirates
13 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers5–7Pittsburgh Pirates
7 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers3–5Pittsburgh Pirates
23 Jul 2025Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates6–1Pittsburgh Pirates
22 Jul 2025Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates8–5Pittsburgh Pirates
21 Jul 2025Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–0Pittsburgh Pirates
19 Jun 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers9–2Detroit Tigers

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 29 meetings on file.

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