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Model picks & player props
Geelong Cats
VS
Fremantle Dockers

Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:42AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
Optus Stadium, Perth
Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep 2026, 10:10AM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Fremantle Dockers -10.5 Spread -111

The model graded 70 markets for Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 11 Sep 2026, 10:10AM at Optus Stadium.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win60.3%
The price says52.6%
Best price-111
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Fremantle Dockers -10.5 High60% chance -111
Spread Lean54% chance
Spread Q2 High61% chance
Spread Q4 Lean52% chance
Spread Q3 Lean52% chance
Team Total Points H1 Lean50% chance
Moneyline Long-shot38% chance
Spread Q2 Lean50% chance
Spread Lean48% chance
Disposals × 19 props Highup to 99%
Marks × 16 props Highup to 91%
Goals × 4 props Highup to 77%
Kicks × 4 props Highup to 97%
Handballs × 3 props Highup to 87%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Fremantle Dockers are the model's favourite to beat Geelong Cats, with a 54% chance to win. Kick-off Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM at Optus Stadium. Best bet: Fremantle Dockers -10.5 at -111.
How they've been scoring this season
Geelong CatsFremantle Dockers
Won-lost11-68-4
Points scored per game106.591.3
Points allowed per game83.374.9
On the road / at home2-5 away5-1 at home
Last 5 gamesWWWWWWLWLL
Their games average 178.0 total points this season.
From the 17 Geelong Cats and 12 Fremantle Dockers games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 8 bookmakers compared
Winner
Geelong Cats2.50+150Kalshi
Dockers1.61-163Kalshi
Total points
Over174.51.90-111TAB
Under174.51.90-111TAB

Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers odds by bookmaker

8 books · best price in green
BookGeelong Cats winDockers winOver 174.5Under 174.5
Dabble1.88-1141.88-114
Kalshi2.50+1501.61-163
PlayUp1.88-1141.88-114
PointsBet
Polymarket2.63+1631.61-163
Sportsbet
TAB1.90-1111.90-111
TABtouch1.89-1121.89-112

Since the market opened: Dockers to win opened 1.59, best now 1.61; the over 174.5 opened 1.89, best now 1.90 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Fremantle Dockers
-8.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Fremantle DockersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersSpread Q4The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersSpread Q3The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Geelong CatsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Geelong CatsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Geelong Cats on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Geelong Cats
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Betfair Ex Au
on Geelong Cats
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Cats

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Dockers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 10 Sep

Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Picks (Sam De Koning Key Factor): Expert Footy Betting Guide

On September 11, 2026 our model has run Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Fremantle Dockers -10.5 Spread (-111), which we rate strong confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Fremantle Dockers -10.5 Spread (-111)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle have been on a roll lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games. They have been scoring well, leading by an average of nearly 29 points over their last 12 matches. This shows they know how to get ahead and keep a strong lead. I think betting on Fremantle to win by more than 10.5 points is a smart choice. Geelong Cats have also been solid, but they usually only lead by about 4 points at quarter-time. Even though they often score well before half-time, Fremantle's recent form gives them a good chance to cover this spread. Just keep in mind that Fremantle's expected final margin is only about 8.6 points, so it could be a close game.

Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Fremantle Dockers -2.5 Spread Q3 (-115)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle have been on a roll, winning 7 of their last 10 matches and beating their opponents by nearly 29 points on average in their last 12 games. They also start strong, scoring over 44 points before half-time lately. This suggests they know how to get ahead and keep the pressure on. Betting on Fremantle to win the third quarter by at least 3 points seems like a solid choice given their recent form. Geelong Cats, while they've been doing well too, only have an average winning margin of 17.3 points in their last 12 games. Plus, they've been just 4 points ahead at quarter-time, showing they can struggle to maintain a strong lead. The risk here is that Geelong could surprise Fremantle with their early scoring, but with Fremantle's current momentum, they're in a good spot to cover the spread.

Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Under 45.5 Team Total Points H1 (-115)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers have been on a solid run, winning 7 out of their last 10 games. They've been really strong in the first half, averaging about 44.6 points before halftime in their last 12 matches. However, Geelong Cats have also shown they can score well, averaging 55.7 points in the same timeframe. This makes for a very close matchup. With both teams performing well, the bet on Fremantle's team total points being under 45.5 feels smart. Our numbers suggest a combined total of around 42.4 points, so there's a good chance that they may not hit that mark. The main risk here is how closely matched the two teams are, but it's worth a shot.

Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Oisin Mullin Over 12.5 Disposals (-110)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a strong run, winning 7 of their last 10 games and coming out ahead by almost 29 points in their last 12 matches. They have shown great teamwork, averaging nearly 45 points before half-time, which makes their games exciting. Oisin Mullin has an opportunity to shine in this match against the Geelong Cats, who have also been solid but not quite as dominant overall. Geelong has been up by 4.1 points at quarter-time and has averaged 55.7 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. While both teams are competitive, the risk here is that Geelong could limit Mullin's chances if they start strong. Still, with Fremantle's recent form and Mullin's potential, betting on him to get over 12.5 disposals feels promising.

Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Nathan O'Driscoll Over 14.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Nathan O'Driscoll has been playing well lately, and Fremantle has won 7 of their last 10 games. They have been dominating their matches by an average of nearly 29 points, which shows they are in great form. O'Driscoll has a good chance to grab over 14.5 disposals in this matchup against the Geelong Cats, who also have a solid record but have been a bit less consistent lately. The risk here is that Geelong Cats often start strong, leading by an average of over 4 points at quarter-time. If they control the game early, it could limit O'Driscoll's chances. Still, with Fremantle's current momentum, this bet looks promising.

Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Karl Worner Over 17.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For this bet to work, Karl Worner needs to make more than 17.5 disposals tonight. Fremantle has been on a roll lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and doing well overall. Worner is likely to get plenty of chances to rack up disposals, especially since Fremantle has averaged almost 45 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. Geelong Cats have also been strong, but their average margin isn't as high as Fremantle's, which could mean more action for Worner. The biggest risk here is how closely matched these teams are, so Worner might face some tough competition. Still, everything points to a good chance for him to hit that mark.

That is the full board for this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 10 Sep

Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Same Game Multi picks Key Insights: Don't Miss These Odds

On Thursday 10 September 2026, Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals, priced at -588 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 18.5 Disposals (-435)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 18.5 Disposals. It was priced at -435 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 player_kicks_over (-625)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 player_kicks_over. It was priced at -625 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Fremantle Dockers v Geelong Cats. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Max Holmes Geelong Cats Disposals
Patrick Voss Fremantle Marks
Karl Worner Fremantle Disposals
Oisin Mullin Geelong Cats Disposals
Nathan O'Driscoll Fremantle Disposals

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

5 markets live
MoneylineGeelong Cats to win+146
-2.8Fremantle Dockers margin (L5)
Model pickGeelong Cats to winFremantle Dockers PF/G82.2Geelong Cats PF/G111.8Fremantle Dockers vs opp (L5)0-5

Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers on Sep 11 - Moneyline: the model's pick is Geelong Cats to win at +146, a 42% model win % (LONG-SHOT). Over their last five games Fremantle Dockers average 82.2 points and Geelong Cats 111.8.

LineFremantle Dockers -10.5-10.5 -111
72%cover %
-2.8Fremantle Dockers margin (L5)
Model pickFremantle Dockers -10.5Fremantle Dockers PF/G82.2Geelong Cats PF/G111.8

Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers on Sep 11 - Line: the model's pick is Fremantle Dockers -10.5 at -111, a 72% cover % (HIGH). Over their last five games Fremantle Dockers average 82.2 points and Geelong Cats 111.8.

Line Q2Fremantle Dockers -2.5-2.5 -114
61%cover %
-2.8Fremantle Dockers margin (L5)
Model pickFremantle Dockers -2.5Fremantle Dockers PF/G82.2Geelong Cats PF/G111.8

Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers on Sep 11 - Line Q2: the model's pick is Fremantle Dockers -2.5 at -114, a 61% cover % (LEAN). Over their last five games Fremantle Dockers average 82.2 points and Geelong Cats 111.8.

Line Q3Fremantle Dockers -2.5-2.5 -115
61%cover %
-2.8Fremantle Dockers margin (L5)
Model pickFremantle Dockers -2.5Fremantle Dockers PF/G82.2Geelong Cats PF/G111.8

Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers on Sep 11 - Line Q3: the model's pick is Fremantle Dockers -2.5 at -115, a 61% cover % (LEAN). Over their last five games Fremantle Dockers average 82.2 points and Geelong Cats 111.8.

Line Q4Fremantle Dockers -2.5-2.5 -115
61%cover %
-2.8Fremantle Dockers margin (L5)
Model pickFremantle Dockers -2.5Fremantle Dockers PF/G82.2Geelong Cats PF/G111.8

Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers on Sep 11 - Line Q4: the model's pick is Fremantle Dockers -2.5 at -115, a 61% cover % (LEAN). Over their last five games Fremantle Dockers average 82.2 points and Geelong Cats 111.8.

Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers — recent results

Fremantle Dockers have won 0 of their last 0 games; Geelong Cats have won 5 of their last 5.

Geelong Cats — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W107–74CARLHome
W133–76RICHHome
W125–110NMFCAway
W117–50ESSHome
W102–75STKHome

Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers — where the money went

Since betting opened on Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers, the market has moved away from Geelong Cats across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Geelong Cats▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Fremantle Dockers▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers — model preview

Fremantle Dockers v Geelong Cats, 10 September 2026. Top of the list: Sam De Koning (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals. Our model likes 6 bets in this game.

On September 11, 2026 our model has run Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Fremantle Dockers -10.5 Spread (-111), which we rate strong confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Cats vs Dockers, or as Dockers vs Cats. The next scheduled game is Friday 11 September 2026 at Optus Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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