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The latest Bet Better model pick for Max Holmes is Over 9.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 91 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 91%, implied 86%, edge +11.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
AFL

Max Holmes

Geelong Cats

+11.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 9.5 -625 (1.16) · $100→$116
+11.3% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
97 in 100
Predicted
17.8 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 97.5% · the book's price implies 86.2% · gap +11.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks97.5%90.5%86.2%1.10+11.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Max Holmes Over 9.5 Kicks (-625)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Max Holmes has been on fire lately, and playing at Optus Stadium gives him a great chance to shine. Our numbers show he's expected to kick more than 9.5 times, which is higher than what he usually manages. With his recent form, he's becoming a key player for the Geelong Cats, and this matchup against Fremantle could really help boost his stats. One risk to think about is that the game could be close, which might affect how much he gets the ball. Still, if he keeps up his current pace, this bet looks promising. It's a good chance to back a player who's in form, so let's see if he can deliver!

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Pick History & Track Record

Max Holmes's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Kicks 9.5

Max Holmes's kicks line is 9.5.

Marks 2.5

Max Holmes's marks line is 2.5.

Clearances 2.5

Max Holmes's clearances line is 2.5.

Disposals 18.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 9 of the last 10 games

Max Holmes's disposals line is 18.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 9 of his last 10 games.

Tackles 1.5

Max Holmes's tackles line is 1.5.

Handballs 7.5

Max Holmes's handballs line is 7.5.

Disposals 17.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 9 of the last 10 games

Max Holmes's disposals line is 17.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 9 of his last 10 games.

Season averages (2024)

Max Holmes averaged 24.2 disposals, 0.5 goals and 5.6 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

24.2
Disposals
0.5
Goals
5.6
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Max Holmes has cleared 15.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o15.5100%
o17.590%
o19.590%
o21.590%
o23.580%
o25.570%
o27.550%
o29.550%
o31.520%
o33.520%
o35.50%
o37.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Max Holmes is averaging 26.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

26.0
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Max Holmes recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions20042
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide28083
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles26180
17 Aug 24St Kilda22042
10 Aug 24Fremantle20033
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows20034
27 Jul 24North Melbourne22155
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs23071
12 Jul 24Collingwood27093
6 Jul 24Hawthorn17072
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Kicks — — — Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Kicks — — — Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Fantasy — — — Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Fantasy — — — Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Fantasy — — — Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Fantasy — — — Pending

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About This Player

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Max Holmes is Over 9.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.3% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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