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Model picks & player props
Hawthorn Hawks
VS
Fremantle Dockers

Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:26AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
Optus Stadium, Perth
Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep 2026, 10:10AM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Fremantle Dockers -3.5 Spread Q3 -112

The model graded 70 markets for Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $189 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 3 Sep 2026, 10:10AM at Optus Stadium.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win56.6%
The price says52.9%
Best price-112
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Q3 Fremantle Dockers -3.5 Lean57% chance -112
Spread Q2 Lean57% chance
Spread Q4 Lean57% chance
Spread Q2 Lean55% chance
Team Total Points H1 Lean51% chance
Team Total Points H1 Lean49% chance
Team Total Points H1 Lean47% chance
Team Total Points Q1 Lean47% chance
Disposals × 22 props Highup to 88%
Fantasy × 5 props Highup to 77%
Kicks × 7 props Highup to 82%
Marks × 10 props Highup to 82%
Goals × 2 props Highup to 77%
Handballs × 4 props Highup to 82%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Hawthorn Hawks and Fremantle Dockers last met on Thu 3 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every AFL game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Hawthorn Hawks · $100 returned $296

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread Q3
Fremantle Dockers
-3.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Fremantle DockersSpread Q3The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersSpread Q4The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Dockers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 3 Sep

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Picks (Jarman Impey Key Factor): Expert Footy Betting Guide

On Thursday 3 September 2026, Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 79.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over, priced at -154 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 79.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over (-154)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 79.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over. It was priced at -154 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) Over 16.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) Over 16.5 Disposals. It was priced at -169 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Josh Treacy (Fremantle) Over 1.5 Goals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Josh Treacy (Fremantle) Over 1.5 Goals. It was priced at -217 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 2.5 player_marks_over (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 2.5 player_marks_over. It was priced at -204 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Under 44.5 team_totals_h1 (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Under 44.5 team_totals_h1. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Under 21.5 team_totals_q1 (-108)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Under 21.5 team_totals_q1. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Fremantle Dockers v Hawthorn Hawks. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 3 Sep

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Same Game Multi picks Top SGM: Our Expert Analysis

On Thursday 3 September 2026, Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) Over 12.5 Disposals, priced at -714 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) Over 12.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 12.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Fremantle Dockers v Hawthorn Hawks. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Michael Frederick Fremantle Disposals
Patrick Voss Fremantle Disposals
Mabior Chol Hawthorn Disposals
Connor Macdonald Hawthorn Disposals
Nathan O'Driscoll Fremantle Disposals

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers — model preview

Fremantle Dockers v Hawthorn Hawks, 3 September 2026. Top of the list: Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 79.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over.

On Thursday 3 September 2026, Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 79.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over, priced at -154 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 79.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over (-154)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 79.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over. It was priced at -154 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
03 Sep 26 Team Total Points H1 Under 44.5 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Team Total Points Q1 Under 21.5 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Team Total Points H1 Under 43.5 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Team Total Points H1 Under 42.5 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Spread Hawthorn Hawks +16.5 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Moneyline Hawthorn Hawks ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Hawks vs Dockers, or as Dockers vs Hawks. The most recent game between them was Thursday 3 September 2026 at Optus Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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