Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Frederick is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 77 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 77%, implied 71%, edge +5.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
AFL
Michael Frederick
Fremantle
Latest Model Pick
Marks
Over 2.5
-250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+5.5% Edge
Geelong Cats
@
Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
77 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 76.9% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +5.5%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Marks | 76.9% | — | 71.4% | 1.30 | +5.5% |
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Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 2.5 player_marks_over (-250)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 2.5 player_marks_over. It was priced at -250 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Michael Frederick's lines for Fri 11 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Marks 2.5
Michael Frederick's marks line is 2.5.
Season averages (2024)
Michael Frederick averaged 9.6 disposals, 1.2 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Michael Frederick has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o9.580%
o10.570%
o11.550%
o12.540%
o13.530%
o14.520%
o15.520%
o16.520%
o17.510%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Michael Frederick is averaging 11.4 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Michael Frederick recorded 8 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 25 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 17 Aug 24 | GWS GIANTS | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 11 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 4 Aug 24 | Essendon | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jul 24 | West Coast Eagles | 8 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Melbourne | 15 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Richmond | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Sydney Swans | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Jun 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 11 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Michael Frederick (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Frederick is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.5% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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