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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 70%, implied 76%, edge +6.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Mabior Chol

Hawthorn

+6.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -313 (1.32) · $100→$132
+6.4% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
4.4 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.1% · the book's price implies 75.8% · gap +6.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks82.1%69.8%75.8%1.43+6.4%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Mabior Chol Over 2.5 Marks (-312)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mabior Chol has been a standout for Fremantle, getting plenty of opportunities to mark the ball. He has the chance to shine in this match against Hawthorn, especially since Fremantle gets the ball inside 50 more often than Hawthorn in their last games. They've been getting it in about 6.7 times more per game, which should help Chol rack up his marks. The most concrete risk is that both teams are quite close in contested ball numbers, with Fremantle losing just a bit more than they win. Still, with our numbers showing a strong chance for Chol to hit over 2.5 marks, this looks like a good bet to make.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Mabior Chol averaged 9.3 disposals, 1.6 goals and 3.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

9.3
Disposals
1.6
Goals
3.7
Marks
2.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Mabior Chol recorded 7 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide7143
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs6020
24 Aug 24North Melbourne8331
18 Aug 24Richmond14194
11 Aug 24Carlton5131
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS7222
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows17281
20 Jul 24Collingwood14212
13 Jul 24Fremantle8134
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats8253
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
15 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.4% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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