Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Connor Macdonald is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 68 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 68%, implied 68%, edge +19.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:38AM UTC
AFL
Connor Macdonald
Hawthorn
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 15.5
-217 (1.46) · $100→$146
+19.6% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks
@
Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
88 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 88.1% · the book's price implies 68.5% · gap +19.6%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 88.1% | 68.4% | 68.5% | 1.46 | +19.6% |
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Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) Over 15.5 Disposals (-217)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) Over 15.5 Disposals. It was priced at -217 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Season averages (2024)
Connor Macdonald averaged 17.4 disposals, 1.1 goals and 5.3 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Connor Macdonald recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 13 Sep 24 | Port Adelaide | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 6 Sep 24 | Western Bulldogs | 23 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 24 Aug 24 | North Melbourne | 19 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 Aug 24 | Richmond | 24 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Carlton | 25 | 0 | 12 | 6 |
| 4 Aug 24 | GWS GIANTS | 14 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Adelaide Crows | 28 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 20 Jul 24 | Collingwood | 14 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Fremantle | 16 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Geelong Cats | 20 | 0 | 8 | 4 |
Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Connor Macdonald is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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