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The latest Bet Better model pick for Karl Worner is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 59%, implied 55%, edge +19.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Karl Worner

Fremantle

+19.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
+19.5% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
21.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.1% · the book's price implies 54.6% · gap +19.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.1%59.2%54.6%1.96+19.5%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Karl Worner Over 17.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Karl Worner to go over 17.5 disposals tonight, he just needs to stay active on the field. Our numbers show he has a good chance to hit this mark, as he's been getting plenty of opportunities lately. He's been involved in more plays than usual, which is a promising sign for this bet. The Fremantle Dockers are facing the Geelong Cats, and both teams are closely matched. This could make it tricky, as a tough game might limit Worner's chances. However, if he stays on his game, he should be able to rack up those disposals.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Karl Worner's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 17.5
-118 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Karl Worner average?

Karl Worner's disposals line is 17.5, best over price -118 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 16.5
-118 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Karl Worner average?

Karl Worner's disposals line is 16.5, best over price -118 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 15.5
-118 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Karl Worner average?

Karl Worner's disposals line is 15.5, best over price -118 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Kicks 9.5
How many disposals does Karl Worner average?

Karl Worner's kicks line is 9.5.

Fantasy 69.5
How many disposals does Karl Worner average?

Karl Worner's fantasy line is 69.5.

Marks 4.5
How many disposals does Karl Worner average?

Karl Worner's marks line is 4.5.

Marks 3.5
How many disposals does Karl Worner average?

Karl Worner's marks line is 3.5.

Disposals 14.5
-118 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Karl Worner average?

Karl Worner's disposals line is 14.5, best over price -118 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Season averages (2024)

Karl Worner averaged 9.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

9.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
2.8
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Karl Worner has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o14.580%
o15.570%
o17.560%
o18.560%
o20.540%
o22.530%
o23.520%
o25.520%
o26.520%
o28.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Karl Worner is averaging 18.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

18.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (10 Aug 24 vs Geelong Cats), Karl Worner recorded 5 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats5000
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS5020
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs16063
17 Mar 24Brisbane Lions12031
26 Aug 23Hawthorn17040
20 Aug 23Port Adelaide5030
12 Aug 23West Coast Eagles15040
9 Jul 23Carlton7011
Quick answers:How many disposals does Karl Worner average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 12.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 11.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 10.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Fantasy — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Karl Worner (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Karl Worner is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.5% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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