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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
New York Mets

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 11, 3:09AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Thu 26 Mar 2026, 5:15PM
13
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Mets -2.5 Spread +340

The model graded 15 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $440 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 26 Mar 2026, 5:15PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win35.3%
The price says22.7%
Best price+340
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread New York Mets -2.5 Long-shot35% chance +340
Spread Long-shot27% chance
Spread Lean44% chance
Moneyline Lean59% chance
Total Runs Long-shot31% chance
Total Runs Lean49% chance
Spread High72% chance
Total Runs Lean58% chance
Total Runs Long-shot40% chance
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 73%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets last met on Thu 26 Mar 2026. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 26 of 140 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 10
Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New York Mets
+1.5
+ 12 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Braxton Ashcraft SPOut
  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Kirby Yates RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jared Jones SP

New York Mets

  • Brett Baty 3BDay-to-day
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut
Availability updated Sep 10, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Joey Bart Batter - Hits
Marcus Semien TOR Batter - Hits

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L55-0

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L55-0

New York Mets spread form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
2.6runs we expect
L5 RF3.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L55-0

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 15 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets — 13 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

13
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 15 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 4 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W15–14MIAAway
W7–5MIAAway
W9–4MIAAway
W4–2SFHome
L5–9SFHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2CHWAway
W9–3CHWAway
W1–0LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W1–0LAAHome

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 3.2 runs per game (2-3) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 3.6 (3-2); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 2.8 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

3.2
New York Mets runs/G
3.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game3.23.6
Hits / game4.06.2
Home runs / game0.80.4
Walks drawn / game1.22.0
Batter K / game4.05.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.81.8
Pitching K / game2.62.6
Walks allowed / game0.41.4
L5 record2-33-2

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: New York Mets won 4, Pittsburgh Pirates won 2.

DateNew York MetsPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Aug 9111New York Mets
Aug 809Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 764New York Mets
Mar 2934Pittsburgh Pirates
Mar 2842New York Mets
Mar 26117New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Brett Baty 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Braxton Ashcraft SPOUT
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Kirby Yates RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets — model preview

Deep dive into New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates : New York Mets Win (-116)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets host the Pirates, there’s a compelling narrative brewing in Flushing that leans heavily in favor of New York. The Mets have been on a roll at home, showcasing a potent lineup that’s been finding ways to get on base and score consistently. Their recent surge is highlighted by a solid batting average that has them near the top of the league, along with key contributions from their stars. On the mound, the Mets' ace brings a strikeout rate that could stifle the Pirates' offense, which has struggled against high-velocity pitching. The Pirates, while scrappy, often falter against teams with strong bullpens, and New York's depth there could prove crucial late in the game. With the Mets’ recent form and the home-field advantage, they seem poised to take this one. Expect the Mets to capitalize on opportunities, making them a strong play on the moneyline.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Mets, or as Mets vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Thursday 26 March 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 13 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 25 meetings on record
New York Mets 14–11 across the last 25 meetings · these games average 9.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–11New York Mets
8 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–0Pittsburgh Pirates
7 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–6New York Mets
29 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets3–4Pittsburgh Pirates
28 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets4–2New York Mets
26 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets11–7New York Mets
29 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates12–1Pittsburgh Pirates
28 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–2Pittsburgh Pirates
27 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–1Pittsburgh Pirates
14 May 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets0–4Pittsburgh Pirates

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 25 meetings on file.

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