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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Milwaukee Brewers

Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 6:48AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
American Family Field, Milwaukee
Indoor
Wed 28 May 2025, 5:10PM
13
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 3.5 Team Total +128

The model graded 19 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $228 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 28 May 2025, 5:10PM at American Family Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win58.6%
The price says43.9%
Best price+128
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Over 3.5 Lean59% chance +128
Team Total Lean44% chance
Team Total High72% chance
Team Total Long-shot30% chance
Team Total High83% chance
Team Total Long-shot18% chance
Team Total Long-shot9% chance
Team Total Long-shot10% chance
Batter - Stolen Bases × 5 props Highup to 95%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 91%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers last met on Wed 28 May 2025. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Over
1.5
+ 12 more markets
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All 13 game markets and 6 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BOut
  • Adley Rutschman CDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Ceddanne Rafaela CFOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jake Bennett SP

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Jake Bauers 1BDay-to-day
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Grant Anderson RPOut
  • Bryse Wilson RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Logan Henderson SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Brice Turang MIL Batter - Stolen Bases
Christian Yelich MIL Batter - Stolen Bases
Jackson Chourio MIL Batter - Stolen Bases
Freddy Peralta MIL Pitcher - Walks
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMilwaukee BrewersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Boston Red Sox L51-4Free board14-13

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineMilwaukee Brewers run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Boston Red Sox L51-4

Milwaukee Brewers spread form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

Milwaukee Brewers total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMilwaukee Brewers team totalNo line posted
1.6runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Boston Red Sox L51-4

Milwaukee Brewers team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers — what the model found

Our model graded 19 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Milwaukee Brewers — 13 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

13
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 19 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 18 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers — recent results

Milwaukee Brewers have won 3 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 3 of their last 5.

Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W8–6CHCHome
W4–3CHCHome
W4–3CHCHome
L8–12CINAway
L3–5CINAway
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome
W3–1BALAway
W5–0BALAway

Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Milwaukee Brewers won 1, Boston Red Sox won 2.

DateMilwaukee BrewersBoston Red SoxWinner
Apr 805Boston Red Sox
Apr 723Boston Red Sox
Apr 686Milwaukee Brewers

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Jake Bauers 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Grant Anderson RPOUT
Bryse Wilson RPOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT
Quinn Priester SPOUT
Angel Zerpa RPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Willson Contreras 1BOUT
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Kutter Crawford SPOUT
Johan Oviedo SPOUT
Ceddanne Rafaela CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox stats and odds.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox : Over 1.5 alternate_team_totals (-345)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Milwaukee Brewers Over 1.5' for the Team Total Runs market is driven by the Brewers' consistent run-scoring performance, particularly at home. Over their last five games, the Brewers have averaged 5.8 runs overall and 5.6 runs at home. This is well above the 1.5 run line, indicating a strong likelihood of the Brewers scoring over this threshold. Additionally, the Brewers' batting average of 8.4 hits overall and 8.6 hits at home in their last five games further supports this likelihood. On the other hand, the Red Sox's pitching has allowed an average of 4.8 runs in their last five away games, which is higher than the 1.5 run line. These statistics suggest a high probability that the Brewers will score over 1.5 runs, making this a solid bet.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Brewers, or as Brewers vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 28 May 2025 at American Family Field. The model has generated 13 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 12 meetings on record
Milwaukee Brewers 7–5 across the last 12 meetings · these games average 8.4 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
8 Apr 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox5–0Boston Red Sox
7 Apr 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox3–2Boston Red Sox
6 Apr 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox6–8Milwaukee Brewers
28 May 2025Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers6–5Milwaukee Brewers
27 May 2025Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers5–1Milwaukee Brewers
26 May 2025Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers3–2Milwaukee Brewers
26 May 2024Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox2–1Boston Red Sox
25 May 2024Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox3–6Milwaukee Brewers
24 May 2024Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox2–7Milwaukee Brewers
23 Apr 2023Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers5–12Boston Red Sox

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 12 meetings on file.

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