Here are our AFL picks for Wednesday 16 September 2026. Our model likes 7 bets here. The one it likes most is Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) Over 7.5 player_handballs_over, priced at -714 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) Over 7.5 player_handballs_over (-714)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) Over 7.5 player_handballs_over. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) Over 11.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Hawthorn Hawks play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) Over 12.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Josh Ward (Hawthorn) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Hawthorn Hawks play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Josh Ward (Hawthorn) Over 15.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Hawthorn Hawks play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) Over 2.5 player_marks_over (-667)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Hawthorn Hawks play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) Over 2.5 player_marks_over. It was priced at -667 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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