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The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 70%, edge +5.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:31AM UTC
AFL

Brodie Grundy

Sydney Swans

+5.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+5.6% Edge
Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:05AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
20.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.1% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +5.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.1%—70.4%1.31+5.6%

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AI Analysis

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Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) Over 16.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Brodie Grundy. The big man in the ruck for the Sydney Swans has been a force to be reckoned with in his recent away games. Averaging a solid 19.6 disposals in his last five away matches, Grundy has been a midfield general, commanding the play with his 63.8% disposal efficiency. Facing off against St Kilda, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 16.5 disposals in the last five matchups, Grundy is poised to dominate the Marvel Stadium turf. With a current hit streak of 2 and hitting his disposal line in 5 out of the last 6 games overall, Grundy is in fine form to snag those crucial possessions in the midfield battle. So, back Brodie Grundy to go over 16.5 disposals in this clash – he's set to split the middle and deliver for your betting ticket.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brodie Grundy averaged 18.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

18.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
2.3
Marks
4.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Brodie Grundy recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions22032
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide15042
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS17023
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows15014
16 Aug 24Essendon9002
9 Aug 24Collingwood13006
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide15013
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs15046
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions13031
13 Jul 24North Melbourne20146
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 16.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.6% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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