Here are our AFL picks for Wednesday 16 September 2026. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 24.5 team_totals_q1, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Under 24.5 team_totals_q1 (-111)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Under 24.5 team_totals_q1. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Sydney Swans 3.5 spreads_q4 (-118)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Sydney Swans 3.5 spreads_q4. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Sydney Swans 3.5 spreads_q3 (-120)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Sydney Swans 3.5 spreads_q3. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Sydney Swans 2.5 spreads_q2 (-111)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Sydney Swans 2.5 spreads_q2. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Hawthorn Hawks 2.5 (-111)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Hawthorn Hawks play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Hawthorn Hawks 2.5. That is a Spread bet. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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