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Model picks & player props
San Diego Padres
VS
Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 14, 8:44AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Coors Field, Denver
Outdoor
Tue 15 Sep 2026, 12:40AM
20
Game markets graded
37
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Colorado Rockies 2.5 Spread -161

The model graded 57 markets for San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $162 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 15 Sep 2026, 12:40AM at Coors Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win60.8%
The price says58.6%
Best price-161
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Colorado Rockies 2.5 High61% chance -161
Spread Long-shot28% chance —
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot12% chance —
Spread Long-shot14% chance —
Spread - 1st 5 Innings High62% chance —
Spread High80% chance —
Spread Long-shot9% chance —
Total Runs High62% chance —
Total Runs Lean54% chance —
Batter - Doubles × 1 prop Highup to 76% —
Pitcher - Outs × 2 props Highup to 63% —
Batter - Hits × 15 props Highup to 67% —
Batter - Total Bases × 13 props Highup to 65% —
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 2 props Highup to 64% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →
San Diego Padres are the model's favourite to beat Colorado Rockies, with a 56% chance to win. Predicted score: Colorado Rockies 8 – San Diego Padres 5.2. Kick-off Tue 15 Sep, 12:40AM at Coors Field. Best bet: Colorado Rockies 2.5 at -161.
How they've been scoring this season
San Diego PadresColorado Rockies
Won-lost81-6855-94
Runs scored per game4.34.7
Runs allowed per game4.15.8
On the road / at home35-39 away30-41 at home
Last 5 gamesWWWWWLLLLL
Their games average 9.5 total runs this season.
From the 149 San Diego Padres and 149 Colorado Rockies games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 53 bookmakers compared
Winner
Padres1.60-1671xBet
Rockies2.63+163Kalshi
Total runs
Over112.00+100BetMGM
Under111.94-106Pinnacle

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies odds by bookmaker

53 books · best price in green
BookPadres winRockies winRockies +1.5Over 11Under 11
1xBet1.60-1672.53+1532.06+106——
888sport1.53-1892.50+1501.91-110——
Bally Bet1.54-1852.50+1501.97-1031.87-1151.81-123
BetAnySports1.55-1822.60+1602.02+1021.91-1101.91-110
BetMGM1.54-1852.50+1501.98-1022.00+1001.83-120
BetOnline1.57-1752.58+1582.00+1001.94-1061.88-114
betPARX1.54-1852.50+1501.97-1031.87-1151.81-123
BetRivers1.54-1852.55+1551.97-1031.87-1151.81-123
Betsson1.54-1852.48+1481.95-1051.93-1081.83-120
BetUS1.57-1752.54+1542.00+1001.95-1051.87-115
Bovada1.53-1892.55+1552.00+1001.91-1101.91-110
DraftKings1.54-1852.53+1532.00+1001.92-1091.90-111
ESPN BET1.54-1852.55+1552.00+100——
Everygame1.57-1752.57+1571.95-1051.91-1101.91-110

Since the market opened: Rockies to win opened 2.48, best now 2.67; the over 11 opened 1.91, best now 2.00 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 32 of 182 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 13
Ben Rice Over 0.5
New York Mets @ New York Yankees
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $374
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Colorado Rockies
+8.5
-2500
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 37 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,970+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Colorado RockiesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Colorado Rockies on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Colorado Rockies
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on Colorado Rockies
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

San Diego Padres

  • Gavin Sheets 1BOut
  • Jeremiah Estrada RPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Luis Rengifo LFOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Nick Pivetta SP

Colorado Rockies

  • Sean Sullivan SPOut
  • Jose Quintana SPOut
  • Kyle Freeland SPOut
  • Willi Castro 2BOut
  • Chase Dollander SPOut
  • Welinton Herrera RPOut
  • McCade Brown SPOut
  • RJ Petit RPOut
  • Pierson Ohl RPOut
  • Kris Bryant DHOut

Probable pitcher

Gabriel Hughes SP
Availability updated Sep 13, 11:20PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 14 Sep

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction and Picks, September 14, 2026

On September 14, 2026 our model has run San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Jackson Merrill (SDP) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-204), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 Total Bases (-167)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 Total Bases (-167). That is a Total Bases bet. It was priced at -167 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.99 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jackson Merrill (SDP) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-204)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jackson Merrill (SDP) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-204). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -204 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Dustin Harris Under 0.5 Hits (+156)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Dustin Harris Under 0.5 Hits (+156). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at +156 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Colorado Rockies +0.5 (-106)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Colorado Rockies +0.5 (-106). That is a spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.43 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Colorado Rockies +0.5 (-106)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Colorado Rockies +0.5 (-106). That is a alternate spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.43 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Colorado Rockies +1 (+118)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Colorado Rockies +1 (+118). That is a alternate spreads bet. It was priced at +118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 14 Sep

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 14, 2026

On September 14, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip LEAN confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Jake Cronenworth (SDP) Under 1.5 Hits (-244)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jake Cronenworth (SDP) Under 1.5 Hits (-244). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at -244 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP) Under 2.5 Total Bases (-135)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP) Under 2.5 Total Bases (-135). That is a Total Bases bet. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.41 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 Hits (-256)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 Hits (-256). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at -256 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.91 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jackson Merrill SDP Batter - Doubles
Casey Mize Pitcher - Outs
Hunter Goodman Batter - Hits
Kyle Karros Batter - Hits
Tomoyuki Sugano BAL Pitcher - Outs

+ 37 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

3 markets live
Run LineColorado Rockies run line+1 +118
81%cover %
+2.8proj. margin
L5 RF2.8L5 RA8.2Home L53-2vs San Diego Padres L51-4

Colorado Rockies spread vs San Diego Padres is live and our model makes it 81% (HIGH); proj. margin +2.8.

MoneylineColorado Rockies to win+149
59%model win %
0-5L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA8.2Home L53-2vs San Diego Padres L51-4

Colorado Rockies moneyline vs San Diego Padres is live and our model makes it 59% (LEAN); L5 record 0-5.

Total RunsGame total · Colorado Rockies vs San Diego PadresOver 11.5 +122
54%over %
13.2proj. runs
L5 RF2.8L5 RA8.2Home L53-2vs San Diego Padres L51-4Free board17-15

Colorado Rockies total runs vs San Diego Padres is live and our model makes it 54% (LEAN); proj. runs 13.2.

Team Total RunsColorado Rockies team totalNo line posted
3.3runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA8.2Home L53-2vs San Diego Padres L51-4

Colorado Rockies team total runs form: last five 0-5, 2.8 runs/gm.

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies — what the model found

Our model graded 57 betting markets for San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies — 20 on the game itself and 37 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
37
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 57 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 56 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies — recent results

Colorado Rockies have won 0 of their last 5 games; San Diego Padres have won 5 of their last 5.

Colorado Rockies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–8DETAway
L7–11DETAway
L2–6DETAway
L3–10NYYAway
L1–6NYYAway
San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–4SFAway
W7–5SFAway
W7–6SFAway
W5–4WSHHome
W9–2WSHHome

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Colorado Rockies won 2, San Diego Padres won 8.

DateColorado RockiesSan Diego PadresWinner
Jul 2978San Diego Padres
Jul 2913San Diego Padres
Apr 2383Colorado Rockies
Apr 23810San Diego Padres
Apr 2201San Diego Padres
Apr 1259San Diego Padres
Apr 1227San Diego Padres
Apr 1125San Diego Padres
Apr 1037San Diego Padres
Mar 2193Colorado Rockies

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Colorado Rockies
PlayerStatus
Sean Sullivan SPOUT
Jose Quintana SPOUT
Kyle Freeland SPOUT
Willi Castro 2BOUT
Chase Dollander SPOUT
Welinton Herrera RPOUT
McCade Brown SPOUT
RJ Petit RPOUT
San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Gavin Sheets 1BOUT
Jeremiah Estrada RPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Luis Rengifo LFOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies — where the money went

Since betting opened on San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, the market has moved away from Colorado Rockies across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Spread — Colorado Rockies -1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 11.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 11.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — San Diego Padres 1.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Colorado Rockies 1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 10.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — San Diego Padres -1.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 10.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies — model preview

Our San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies prediction for September 14, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 14, 2026 our model has run San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Jackson Merrill (SDP) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-204), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Padres vs Rockies, or as Rockies vs Padres. The next scheduled game is Tuesday 15 September 2026 at Coors Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 37 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 55 meetings on record
San Diego Padres 34–21 across the last 55 meetings · these games average 9.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
29 Jul 2026Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres8–7San Diego Padres
28 Jul 2026Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres8–7San Diego Padres
23 Apr 2026San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies8–3Colorado Rockies
22 Apr 2026San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies0–1San Diego Padres
21 Apr 2026San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies0–1San Diego Padres
12 Apr 2026Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres7–2San Diego Padres
11 Apr 2026Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres5–2San Diego Padres
10 Apr 2026Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres5–2San Diego Padres
9 Apr 2026Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres7–3San Diego Padres
21 Mar 2026Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres3–9Colorado Rockies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 55 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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