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Model picks & player props
Chicago White Sox
VS
Cleveland Guardians

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 14, 8:12AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Outdoor
Mon 14 Sep 2026, 10:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 10 Total Runs +310

The model graded 70 markets for Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $410 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 14 Sep 2026, 10:40PM at Progressive Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win28.7%
The price says24.4%
Best price+310
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 10 Long-shot29% chance +310
Total Runs Long-shot32% chance
Total Runs Lean45% chance
Total Runs Long-shot20% chance
Total Runs Lean49% chance
Total Runs Lean43% chance
Total Runs Long-shot37% chance
Total Runs Long-shot11% chance
Total Runs Long-shot8% chance
Batter - Doubles × 3 props Highup to 75%
Batter - Total Bases × 9 props Highup to 61%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 8 props Leanup to 44%
Batter - Home Runs × 2 props Long-shotup to 38%
Batter - RBIs × 2 props Leanup to 45%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Cleveland Guardians are the model's favourite to beat Chicago White Sox, with a 56% chance to win. Predicted score: Cleveland Guardians 4.3 – Chicago White Sox 4.4. Kick-off Mon 14 Sep, 10:40PM at Progressive Field. Best bet: Over 10 at +310.
How they've been scoring this season
Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians
Won-lost76-7376-74
Runs scored per game4.74.1
Runs allowed per game4.44.1
On the road / at home33-42 away36-39 at home
Last 5 gamesLLLWLWLWLW
Their games average 8.7 total runs this season.
From the 149 Chicago White Sox and 150 Cleveland Guardians games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 51 bookmakers compared
Winner
Sox2.38+138Betfair Exchange
Guardians1.74-1351xBet
Total runs
Over72.03+103LowVig
Under71.91-110BetMGM

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians odds by bookmaker

51 books · best price in green
BookSox winGuardians winGuardians -1.5Over 7Under 7
1xBet2.24+1241.74-1352.62+162
888sport2.25+1251.65-1542.55+155
Bally Bet2.20+1201.68-1472.55+1551.81-1231.87-115
BetAnySports2.25+1251.69-1452.55+1551.93-1081.88-114
BetMGM2.25+1251.65-1542.54+1541.91-1101.91-110
BetOnline2.32+1321.68-1472.53+1532.00+1001.83-120
betPARX2.20+1201.68-1472.55+1551.81-1231.87-115
BetRivers2.23+1231.68-1472.55+1551.81-1231.87-115
Betsson2.22+1221.66-1522.36+1361.86-1161.90-111
BetUS2.31+1311.68-1472.52+1522.00+1001.83-120
Bovada2.21+1211.69-1452.65+165
Coolbet2.23+1231.66-1522.52+1521.92-1091.89-112
DraftKings2.29+1291.64-1562.49+1492.00+1001.83-120
ESPN BET2.30+1301.67-1492.60+160

Since the market opened: Guardians to win opened 1.68, best now 1.74; the over 7 opened 1.92, best now 2.03 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 32 of 182 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 13
Ben Rice Over 0.5
New York Mets @ New York Yankees
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
8.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago White SoxSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago White SoxSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago White SoxSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Chicago White Sox on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Chicago White Sox
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on Chicago White Sox
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro

Closing line

Snapshot logged
We store the closing number to grade every pick's CLV.
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago White Sox

  • Drew Thorpe SPOut
  • Tommy Pham LFOut
  • Prelander Berroa RPOut
  • Ky Bush SPOut
  • Huascar Brazoban RPOut
  • Jordan Leasure RPOut
  • Joey Bart COut
  • Mike Vasil RPOut
  • Tanner Murray LFOut
  • Brooks Baldwin LFOut

Probable pitcher

Sean Burke SP

Cleveland Guardians

  • Colin Holderman RPOut
  • Shawn Armstrong RPOut
  • Rhys Hoskins 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Tanner Bibee SP
Availability updated Sep 13, 6:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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The preview

Written 14 Sep

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Prediction and Picks, September 14, 2026

On September 13, 2026 our model has run Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Batter - Runs Scored (+161), which we rate long shot confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox: Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Batter - Runs Scored (+161)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Munetaka Murakami has been showing some solid form lately, hitting well against left-handed pitchers this season. The Cleveland Guardians have struggled against lefties, and with the way Murakami is performing, he has a good chance to score at least one run. He tends to do well in day games right after a night game, which adds to the optimism for this bet. On the flip side, the Guardians have been averaging just under one run less than their opponents in recent games. They're not the strongest team right now, which puts some risk on Murakami's chances. Still, with the odds sitting at +161, it's worth a shot to see if he can cross home plate today.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox: Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Batter - Singles (+220)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Munetaka Murakami has been showing some solid hitting lately, making him a player to watch. He has a good chance of getting at least one single against the Chicago White Sox, especially since they have struggled recently and only won 3 out of their last 10 games. Murakami has hit well in day games after night games, which makes this bet even more appealing. The White Sox pitchers have been better against lefties, but Murakami's stats suggest he can hold his own. The biggest risk is that the Guardians have been averaging a bit low in runs lately, but with Murakami's ability to get on base, he's still a strong pick. Betting on him to get over 0.5 singles feels promising.

That is the whole read on this one. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 14 Sep

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 14, 2026

On September 14, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip LEAN confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-185)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Cleveland Guardians play Chicago White Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-185). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -185 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.41 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Steven Kwan (CLE) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-323)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Cleveland Guardians play Chicago White Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Steven Kwan (CLE) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-323). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -323 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Chase Meidroth (CHW) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-196)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Cleveland Guardians play Chicago White Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Chase Meidroth (CHW) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-196). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -196 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Munetaka Murakami Batter - Doubles
Colson Montgomery CHW Batter - Doubles
Brayan Rocchio Batter - Doubles
Munetaka Murakami Batter - Total Bases
Brayan Rocchio Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

3 markets live
Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxOver 9 +220
8.7proj. runs
L5 RF5.2L5 RA5.2Home L52-3vs Chicago White Sox L51-4

Cleveland Guardians total runs vs Chicago White Sox is live and our model makes it 36% (LONG-SHOT); proj. runs 8.7.

MoneylineChicago White Sox to win+130
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA5.4Away L52-3vs Cleveland Guardians L54-1

Chicago White Sox moneyline vs Cleveland Guardians is live and our model makes it 44% (LONG-SHOT); L5 record 1-4.

Run LineChicago White Sox run line-3 +468
-0.1proj. margin
L5 RF2.8L5 RA5.4Away L52-3vs Cleveland Guardians L54-1

Chicago White Sox spread vs Cleveland Guardians is live and our model makes it 17% (LONG-SHOT); proj. margin -0.1.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
5.3runs we expect
L5 RF5.2L5 RA5.2Home L52-3vs Chicago White Sox L51-4

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 2-3, 5.2 runs/gm.

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — recent results

Cleveland Guardians have won 3 of their last 5 games; Chicago White Sox have won 1 of their last 5.

Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–2MINAway
W5–2MINAway
L3–4MINAway
L5–9BALAway
W9–5BALAway
Chicago White Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3STLAway
L3–7STLAway
W6–5STLAway
L0–2PITHome
L2–4PITHome

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Cleveland Guardians won 4, Chicago White Sox won 6.

DateCleveland GuardiansChicago White SoxWinner
Aug 935Chicago White Sox
Aug 836Chicago White Sox
Aug 782Cleveland Guardians
Jul 567Chicago White Sox
Jul 413Chicago White Sox
Jul 343Cleveland Guardians
Jul 265Cleveland Guardians
Jun 2443Cleveland Guardians
Jun 2312Chicago White Sox
Jun 2256Chicago White Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Colin Holderman RPOUT
Shawn Armstrong RPOUT
Rhys Hoskins 1BOUT
Chicago White Sox
PlayerStatus
Drew Thorpe SPOUT
Tommy Pham LFOUT
Prelander Berroa RPOUT
Ky Bush SPOUT
Huascar Brazoban RPOUT
Jordan Leasure RPOUT
Joey Bart COUT
Mike Vasil RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians — where the money went

Since betting opened on Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, the market has moved away from Chicago White Sox across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Chicago White Sox▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Cleveland Guardians▲ Money came for this
Spread — Cleveland Guardians -1▲ Money came for this
Spread — Chicago White Sox 1▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 7▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 7▼ Money drifted off this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians — model preview

Our Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians prediction for September 14, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 13, 2026 our model has run Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Batter - Runs Scored (+161), which we rate long shot confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
04 Jul 26 Spread Chicago White Sox -1.5 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians +3 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians +2.5 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians +2 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians +1.5 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians +1 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Moneyline Cleveland Guardians ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Guardians, or as Guardians vs Sox. The next scheduled game is Monday 14 September 2026 at Progressive Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 57 meetings on record
Cleveland Guardians 35–22 across the last 57 meetings · these games average 7.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Aug 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox5–3Chicago White Sox
8 Aug 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox6–3Chicago White Sox
7 Aug 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox2–8Cleveland Guardians
5 Jul 2026Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians6–7Chicago White Sox
4 Jul 2026Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians1–3Chicago White Sox
3 Jul 2026Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians4–3Cleveland Guardians
2 Jul 2026Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians6–5Cleveland Guardians
24 Jun 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox3–4Cleveland Guardians
23 Jun 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox2–1Chicago White Sox
22 Jun 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox6–5Chicago White Sox

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 57 meetings on file.

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