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The latest Bet Better model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 4.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 61%, implied 67%, edge +6.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:44AM UTC
AFL

Blake Hardwick

Hawthorn

+6.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 4.5 -204 (1.49) · $100→$149
+6.1% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
6.2 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.2% · the book's price implies 67.1% · gap +6.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks73.2%61.3%67.1%1.63+6.1%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Blake Hardwick Over 4.5 Marks (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Blake Hardwick needs to take at least five marks for this bet to win tonight. He has been pretty consistent, averaging almost one contested mark in his last ten games. Playing at Optus Stadium, he usually sees plenty of action, especially since Fremantle gets the ball inside 50 more often than Hawthorn. Even though both teams have been winning lately, Fremantle is slightly better at getting the ball forward. One risk to watch is that Hardwick is just behind in free kicks, which can limit his chances. Still, the numbers suggest he has a good shot at getting those marks tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Blake Hardwick averaged 15.0 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.7 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

15.0
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.7
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Blake Hardwick recorded 16 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide16045
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs210120
24 Aug 24North Melbourne10014
18 Aug 24Richmond22032
11 Aug 24Carlton15092
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS19086
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows15034
20 Jul 24Collingwood19012
13 Jul 24Fremantle14042
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats19072
Quick answers:How many disposals does Blake Hardwick average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Fantasy — — — Pending

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About This Player

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 4.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.1% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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