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The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Johnson is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 65%, implied 72%, edge +5.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:51AM UTC
AFL

Matthew Johnson

Fremantle

+5.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
+5.6% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
4.1 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 77.5% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap +5.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks77.5%64.8%71.9%1.54+5.6%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Matthew Johnson Over 2.5 Marks (-256)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Matthew Johnson to get over 2.5 marks tonight, he just needs to find the ball and catch it a few times. Fremantle has been on a roll, winning 7 of their last 10 games and averaging nearly 29 points more than their opponents in the last 12 matches. This means they are likely to be controlling the game and giving Johnson chances to mark the ball. Geelong Cats are no slouches either, averaging over 55 points before half-time in their last 12 games. However, Fremantle's recent form and their scoring power suggest they will keep pressure on Geelong. The biggest risk is how close the two sides have been at quarter-time, with Geelong leading by an average of just over 4 points. If the game is tight, it might limit Johnson's opportunities, but overall, he looks set to be involved.

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Pick History & Track Record

Matthew Johnson's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Marks 2.5
How many disposals does Matthew Johnson average?

Matthew Johnson's marks line is 2.5.

Handballs 7.5
How many disposals does Matthew Johnson average?

Matthew Johnson's handballs line is 7.5.

Disposals 14.5
How many disposals does Matthew Johnson average?

Matthew Johnson's disposals line is 14.5.

Disposals 13.5
How many disposals does Matthew Johnson average?

Matthew Johnson's disposals line is 13.5.

Disposals 12.5
How many disposals does Matthew Johnson average?

Matthew Johnson's disposals line is 12.5.

Season averages (2024)

Matthew Johnson averaged 15.9 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.6 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.

15.9
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.6
Marks
3.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Matthew Johnson has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o14.590%
o15.590%
o17.560%
o18.540%
o20.530%
o21.530%
o23.530%
o24.510%
o26.510%
o27.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Matthew Johnson is averaging 17.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

17.8
Disp · Overall
0.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Matthew Johnson recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide7010
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS11001
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats21062
13 Jul 24Hawthorn12045
6 Jul 24Richmond19047
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans21024
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS15055
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs9023
24 May 24Collingwood20044
18 May 24St Kilda21153
Quick answers:How many disposals does Matthew Johnson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Handballs 7.5 Over -345 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 14.5 Over -238 ✗ MISS
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 13.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Johnson is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.6% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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