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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Ward is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 56%, implied 55%, edge +16.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:06AM UTC
AFL

Josh Ward

Hawthorn

+16.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -122 (1.82) · $100→$182
+16.1% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
24.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.1% · the book's price implies 54.9% · gap +16.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.1%56.2%54.9%1.98+16.1%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Josh Ward Over 21.5 Disposals (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle and Hawthorn both have strong recent form, winning 7 out of their last 10 games. However, Fremantle has a notable advantage, getting the ball inside 50 about 8.1 more times per game than Hawthorn. This means there will likely be more opportunities for players like Josh Ward to rack up disposals. Ward has been doing well lately, and with the game setup favoring Fremantle's forward entries, we think he can get over 21.5 disposals. The biggest risk is that both teams are closely matched in contested ball stats, with Fremantle losing slightly more. Still, we see a good chance for Ward to hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Josh Ward averaged 14.9 disposals, 0.1 goals and 4.1 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
0.1
Goals
4.1
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Josh Ward recorded 14 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide14041
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs22039
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS11021
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows19042
20 Jul 24Collingwood18042
13 Jul 24Fremantle10031
5 May 24Western Bulldogs9141
13 Apr 24Gold Coast SUNS7021
7 Apr 24Collingwood17022
1 Apr 24Geelong Cats19074
Quick answers:How many disposals does Josh Ward average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Mar 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 22.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Ward (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Ward is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.1% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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