Here are our AFL picks for Friday 11 September 2026. Our model likes 7 bets here. The one it likes most is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals, priced at -588 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals (-588)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 player_kicks_over (-667)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 player_kicks_over. It was priced at -667 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 12.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Over 12.5 Disposals (-588)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Luke Nankervis (Adelaide Crows) Over 10.5 Disposals. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Connor O'Sullivan (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-303)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Connor O'Sullivan (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals. It was priced at -303 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Jake Soligo (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Jake Soligo (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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