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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Nankervis is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 59%, implied 54%, edge +18.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Luke Nankervis

Adelaide Crows

+18.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -118 (1.85) · $100→$185
+18.6% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 27°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
17.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.7% · the book's price implies 54.1% · gap +18.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.7%59.2%54.1%1.98+18.6%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Luke Nankervis Over 14.5 Disposals (-118)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Luke Nankervis has been really standing out lately, and there's a strong chance he'll rack up over 14.5 disposals against the Adelaide Crows. The numbers show he's been doing well in one-on-one contests and marking the ball, which are key for getting those disposals. Plus, he's been averaging close to this mark, making this bet look promising. One thing to watch out for is how closely matched these two teams can be, which might make it tough for any player to shine. Still, with the way Nankervis has been playing, betting on him to get over 14.5 disposals feels like a solid shot. Just remember, it's all part of the game, and outcomes can vary.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Luke Nankervis's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 14.5

Luke Nankervis's disposals line is 14.5.

Marks 2.5

Luke Nankervis's marks line is 2.5.

Disposals 13.5

Luke Nankervis's disposals line is 13.5.

Disposals 12.5

Luke Nankervis's disposals line is 12.5.

Disposals 11.5

Luke Nankervis's disposals line is 11.5.

Disposals 10.5

Luke Nankervis's disposals line is 10.5.

Season averages (2024)

Luke Nankervis averaged 17.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

17.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.0
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Luke Nankervis has cleared 9.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.5100%
o10.590%
o11.590%
o13.590%
o14.580%
o16.550%
o17.510%
o18.510%
o20.520%
o21.510%
o23.50%
o24.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Luke Nankervis is averaging 15.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

15.8
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Luke Nankervis recorded 19 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans19151
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide16014
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs13031
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats14052
28 Jul 24Hawthorn22054
19 Jul 24Essendon12023
13 Jul 24St Kilda20004
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions19022
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS15061
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans17090
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -120 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 12.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Luke Nankervis (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Nankervis is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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