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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Soligo is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 58%, implied 61%, edge +10.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
AFL

Jake Soligo

Adelaide Crows

+10.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -159 (1.63) · $100→$163
+10.5% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
18.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.8% · the book's price implies 61.3% · gap +10.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.8%57.8%61.3%1.73+10.5%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Jake Soligo Over 15.5 Disposals (-159)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Jake Soligo has been showing some solid form lately, making a real impact on the field. He's been getting plenty of disposals, and our numbers suggest he has a good chance to go over 15.5 against the Brisbane Lions. Playing at the Gabba, he might find lots of opportunities to touch the ball, especially since the Lions can be a bit vulnerable in that area. One thing to keep in mind is that both teams are pretty competitive, so it could be a close game. If the match turns into a low-scoring affair, it might limit how many times he can get his hands on the ball. Still, with his current form, this bet looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Jake Soligo's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 15.5

Jake Soligo's disposals line is 15.5.

Disposals 14.5

Jake Soligo's disposals line is 14.5.

Disposals 13.5

Jake Soligo's disposals line is 13.5.

Disposals 12.5

Jake Soligo's disposals line is 12.5.

Disposals 11.5

Jake Soligo's disposals line is 11.5.

Season averages (2024)

Jake Soligo averaged 22.0 disposals, 0.3 goals and 2.6 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

22.0
Disposals
0.3
Goals
2.6
Marks
3.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jake Soligo has cleared 10.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.590%
o11.580%
o13.590%
o15.570%
o16.560%
o18.540%
o20.510%
o21.510%
o23.510%
o25.510%
o26.50%
o28.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jake Soligo is averaging 16.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.8
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jake Soligo recorded 25 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans25043
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide18045
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs19041
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats21134
28 Jul 24Hawthorn30004
19 Jul 24Essendon21044
13 Jul 24St Kilda25025
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions16124
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS17026
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans19152
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 11.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 15.5 Over -156 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jake Soligo (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Soligo is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.5% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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