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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Steelers
VS
New England Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:32AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NFL
New England
Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:00PM
6
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New England Patriots Moneyline +430

The model graded 6 markets for Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $530 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:00PM at New England.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win37.4%
The price says18.9%
Best price+430
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New England Patriots Long-shot37% chance +430
Total Points High66% chance —
Spread High62% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →

Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots last met on Sun 21 Sep 2025. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 9 bookmakers compared
Winner
Steelers2.98+198FanDuel
Patriots1.46-217DraftKings
Total points
Over43.51.95-105FanDuel
Under43.51.92-109betPARX

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots odds by bookmaker

9 books · best price in green
BookSteelers winPatriots winPatriots -5Over 43.5Under 43.5
Bally Bet2.70+1701.45-2221.92-1091.89-1121.92-109
betPARX2.70+1701.45-2221.92-1091.89-1121.92-109
BetRivers2.70+1701.45-2221.92-1091.89-1121.92-109
DraftKings2.80+1801.46-217—1.91-1101.91-110
FanDuel2.98+1981.42-238—1.95-1051.87-115
BetOnline——1.87-115——
BetUS——1.87-115——
LowVig——1.91-110——
William Hill——1.88-1141.94-1061.88-114

Since the market opened: Patriots to win opened 1.44, best now 1.46; the over 43.5 opened 1.91, best now 1.95 (decimal, best book).

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
Our call on this game: 1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New England Patriots
+430
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New England PatriotsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh SteelersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Joey Porter Jr. CBQuestionable
  • DeShon Elliott SOut
  • Jack Driscoll OTOut
  • Donte Kent CBOut

New England Patriots

  • A.J. Brown WROut
  • Behren Morton QBOut
  • Efton Chism III WROut
  • Karon Prunty CBOut
  • Walter Rouse OLOut
  • TreVeyon Henderson RBOut
  • Erick Hunter LBOut
  • Ben Brown COut
  • Brenden Schooler SOut
  • Bryce Baringer POut
  • Khalil Jacobs LBOut
  • Marcus Bryant OTOut
  • Harold Landry III LBOut
Availability updated Sep 10, 2:41AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew England Patriots to winNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadPittsburgh Steelers spreadNo line posted

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsSteelers @ PatriotsNo line posted
5-5Free board · overs and unders
Last 105-5Home5-4
Free board · recent overs and unders5-5

New England Patriots game total — on our free board this call has landed 5 of 10 times, updated every game week on BetBetter.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots — what the model found

Our model graded 6 betting markets for Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots — 6 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 6 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 5 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots — recent results

New England Patriots have won 1 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Steelers have won 2 of their last 5.

New England Patriots — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L10–13SEAAway
L13–37CLEAway
W24–21PHIHome
D13–13INDHome
L13–29SEAHome
Pittsburgh Steelers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L27–28BUFAway
L0–17NYJHome
W28–9GBHome
L6–30HOUHome
W26–24BALHome

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
A.J. Brown WROUT
Behren Morton QBOUT
Efton Chism III WROUT
Karon Prunty CBOUT
Walter Rouse OLOUT
TreVeyon Henderson RBOUT
Erick Hunter LBOUT
Ben Brown COUT
Pittsburgh Steelers
PlayerStatus
Joey Porter Jr. CBQUESTIONABLE
DeShon Elliott SOUT
Jack Driscoll OTOUT
Donte Kent CBOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Steelers vs Patriots, or as Patriots vs Steelers. The most recent game between them was Sunday 21 September 2025 at New England. The model has generated 6 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 9 meetings on record
New England Patriots 7–2 across the last 9 meetings · these games average 40.4 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
21 Sep 2025Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots14–21Pittsburgh Steelers
7 Dec 2023New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers18–21New England Patriots
18 Sep 2022New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers14–17New England Patriots
8 Sep 2019Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots33–3New England Patriots
16 Dec 2018New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers17–10Pittsburgh Steelers
17 Dec 2017New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers24–27New England Patriots
22 Jan 2017Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots36–17New England Patriots
23 Oct 2016New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers16–27New England Patriots
10 Sep 2015Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots28–21New England Patriots

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Today's selected board

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