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Model picks & player props
Houston Texans
VS
New England Patriots

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:28AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NFL
New England
Sun 18 Jan 2026, 8:00PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New England Patriots -3.5 Spread +100

The model graded 20 markets for Houston Texans vs New England Patriots (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $200 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 18 Jan 2026, 8:00PM at New England.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win65.8%
The price says50.0%
Best price+100
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread New England Patriots -3.5 High66% chance +100
Spread High65% chance —
Total Points Lean58% chance —
Total Points Lean58% chance —
Total Points Lean58% chance —
Total Points Lean58% chance —
Moneyline High65% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →

Houston Texans and New England Patriots last met on Sun 18 Jan 2026. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
New England Patriots -3.5 · $100 returned $200

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
Our call on this game: 1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New England Patriots
-3
-114
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New England PatriotsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Texans

  • Kayden McDonald DTQuestionable
  • Jayden Higgins WROut
  • Tank Dell WROut
  • Sam Hagen GOut
  • Braden Smith OTOut
  • Solomon Byrd DEOut
  • Ali Gaye DEOut
  • M.J. Stewart SOut
  • E.J. Speed LBOut
  • Ja'Marcus Ingram CBOut

New England Patriots

  • A.J. Brown WROut
  • Behren Morton QBOut
  • Efton Chism III WROut
  • Karon Prunty CBOut
  • Walter Rouse OLOut
  • TreVeyon Henderson RBOut
  • Erick Hunter LBOut
  • Ben Brown COut
  • Brenden Schooler SOut
  • Bryce Baringer POut
  • Khalil Jacobs LBOut
  • Marcus Bryant OTOut
  • Harold Landry III LBOut
Availability updated Sep 10, 2:41AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Texans vs New England Patriots: Outdoors with 5 mph wind, 53°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 23 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfaceartificial turf
Wind5 mph
Temperature53°F
Availability23 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew England Patriots to winNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadNew England Patriots spreadNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsTexans @ PatriotsNo line posted
5-5Free board · overs and unders
Last 105-5Home5-4
Free board · recent overs and unders5-5

New England Patriots game total — on our free board this call has landed 5 of 10 times, updated every game week on BetBetter.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Houston Texans at New England Patriots — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Texans vs New England Patriots — recent results

New England Patriots have won 1 of their last 5 games; Houston Texans have won 1 of their last 5.

New England Patriots — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L10–13SEAAway
L13–37CLEAway
W24–21PHIHome
D13–13INDHome
L13–29SEAHome
Houston Texans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L13–16CARAway
L20–22LVHome
L7–27LACHome
L16–28NEAway
W30–6PITAway

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: New England Patriots won 1, Houston Texans won 0.

DateNew England PatriotsHouston TexansWinner
Jan 182816New England Patriots

Who’s out or in doubt

23 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
A.J. Brown WROUT
Behren Morton QBOUT
Efton Chism III WROUT
Karon Prunty CBOUT
Walter Rouse OLOUT
TreVeyon Henderson RBOUT
Erick Hunter LBOUT
Ben Brown COUT
Houston Texans
PlayerStatus
Kayden McDonald DTQUESTIONABLE
Jayden Higgins WROUT
Tank Dell WROUT
Sam Hagen GOUT
Braden Smith OTOUT
Solomon Byrd DEOUT
Ali Gaye DEOUT
M.J. Stewart SOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
7
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
18 Jan 26 Total Points Under 41.5 ✗ MISS
18 Jan 26 Total Points Over 41.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jan 26 Total Points Under 40.5 ✗ MISS
18 Jan 26 Total Points Over 40.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jan 26 Spread New England Patriots -3 ✓ HIT
18 Jan 26 Moneyline New England Patriots ✓ HIT
18 Jan 26 Spread New England Patriots -3.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Texans vs New England Patriots in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Texans vs Patriots, or as Patriots vs Texans. The most recent game between them was Sunday 18 January 2026 at New England. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 10 meetings on record
New England Patriots 7–3 across the last 10 meetings · these games average 47.6 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
18 Jan 2026Houston Texans @ New England Patriots28–16New England Patriots
13 Oct 2024Houston Texans @ New England Patriots21–41Houston Texans
10 Oct 2021New England Patriots @ Houston Texans22–25New England Patriots
22 Nov 2020New England Patriots @ Houston Texans27–20Houston Texans
1 Dec 2019New England Patriots @ Houston Texans28–22Houston Texans
9 Sep 2018Houston Texans @ New England Patriots27–20New England Patriots
24 Sep 2017Houston Texans @ New England Patriots36–33New England Patriots
14 Jan 2017Houston Texans @ New England Patriots34–16New England Patriots
22 Sep 2016Houston Texans @ New England Patriots27–0New England Patriots
13 Dec 2015New England Patriots @ Houston Texans6–27New England Patriots

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