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Model picks & player props
Buffalo Bills
VS
New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 3:57AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NFL
New England
Sun 14 Dec 2025, 6:00PM
8
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New England Patriots Moneyline +114

The model graded 8 markets for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $214 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 14 Dec 2025, 6:00PM at New England.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win66.6%
The price says46.7%
Best price+114
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New England Patriots High67% chance +114
Total Points Lean59% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →

Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots last met on Sun 14 Dec 2025. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 24.5 · $100 returned $420

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
Our call on this game: 1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New England Patriots
+114
+ 7 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New England PatriotsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Buffalo Bills

  • T.J. Sanders DTQuestionable
  • Jordan Hancock CBQuestionable
  • Ty Johnson RBQuestionable
  • Jedrick Wills Jr. OTQuestionable
  • Tyrell Shavers WROut
  • Dorian Strong CBOut
  • Zane Durant DTOut
  • Jude Bowry OTQuestionable

New England Patriots

  • A.J. Brown WROut
  • Behren Morton QBOut
  • Efton Chism III WROut
  • Karon Prunty CBOut
  • Walter Rouse OLOut
  • TreVeyon Henderson RBOut
  • Erick Hunter LBOut
  • Ben Brown COut
  • Brenden Schooler SOut
  • Bryce Baringer POut
  • Khalil Jacobs LBOut
  • Marcus Bryant OTOut
  • Harold Landry III LBOut
Availability updated Sep 10, 2:41AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots: Outdoors with 14 mph wind, 33°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfaceartificial turf
Wind14 mph
Temperature33°F
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew England Patriots to winNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadNew England Patriots spreadNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsBills @ PatriotsNo line posted
5-5Free board · overs and unders
Last 105-5Home5-4
Free board · recent overs and unders5-5

New England Patriots game total — on our free board this call has landed 5 of 10 times, updated every game week on BetBetter.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots — 8 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

8
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 7 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots — recent results

New England Patriots have won 2 of their last 5 games; Buffalo Bills have won 4 of their last 5.

New England Patriots — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L13–37CLEAway
W24–21PHIHome
D13–13INDHome
L13–29SEAHome
W10–7DENAway
Buffalo Bills — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W28–27PITHome
W31–7CLEAway
W29–14CARHome
L30–33DENAway
W27–24JAXAway

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
A.J. Brown WROUT
Behren Morton QBOUT
Efton Chism III WROUT
Karon Prunty CBOUT
Walter Rouse OLOUT
TreVeyon Henderson RBOUT
Erick Hunter LBOUT
Ben Brown COUT
Buffalo Bills
PlayerStatus
T.J. Sanders DTQUESTIONABLE
Jordan Hancock CBQUESTIONABLE
Ty Johnson RBQUESTIONABLE
Jedrick Wills Jr. OTQUESTIONABLE
Tyrell Shavers WROUT
Dorian Strong CBOUT
Zane Durant DTOUT
Jude Bowry OTQUESTIONABLE

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
14 Dec 25 Total Points Over 49.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Bills vs Patriots, or as Patriots vs Bills. The most recent game between them was Sunday 14 December 2025 at New England. The model has generated 8 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
New England Patriots 13–10 across the last 23 meetings · these games average 44.4 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
14 Dec 2025Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots31–35Buffalo Bills
5 Oct 2025New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills20–23New England Patriots
5 Jan 2025Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots23–16New England Patriots
22 Dec 2024New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills24–21Buffalo Bills
31 Dec 2023New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills27–21Buffalo Bills
22 Oct 2023Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots29–25New England Patriots
8 Jan 2023New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills35–23Buffalo Bills
1 Dec 2022Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots10–24Buffalo Bills
15 Jan 2022New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills47–17Buffalo Bills
26 Dec 2021Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots21–33Buffalo Bills

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

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Today's selected board

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