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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 18, 12:03AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Thu 17 Sep 2026, 11:15PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 0.5 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings +1280

The model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $1,380 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 17 Sep 2026, 11:15PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win5.8%
The price says7.1%
Best price+1280
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 0.5 Long-shot6% chance +1280
Moneyline Lean44% chance —
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean44% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot14% chance —
Spread Long-shot23% chance —
Spread Long-shot16% chance —
Spread Long-shot28% chance —
Total Runs Long-shot17% chance —
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot16% chance —
Batter - Doubles × 3 props Highup to 74% —
Batter - Total Bases × 10 props Leanup to 48% —
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props Long-shotup to 36% —
Batter - RBIs × 10 props Leanup to 46% —
Batter - Walks × 9 props Highup to 91% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets last met on Thu 17 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 89 of 195 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 17
Justin Wrobleski Over 1.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $110
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
Under
0.5
+1280
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,348+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from New York Mets on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward New York Mets
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on Over
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro

Closing line

Snapshot logged
We store the closing number to grade every pick's CLV.
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Jesus Luzardo SPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Aaron Nola SP

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Daniel Duarte RPOut
  • Robert Stock RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Nolan McLean SP
Availability updated Sep 17, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The plate umpire

Behind the plate: Ramon De Jesus. Games he has called average 9.9 runs across 21 games on record — the league average this season is 9.2. Full umpire record →

The preview

Written 18 Sep

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks, September 18, 2026

On September 18, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 0.5 totals 1st 1 innings (-122), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Alec Bohm (PHI) Over 0.5 RBIs (+224)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Mets play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Alec Bohm (PHI) Over 0.5 RBIs (+224). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at +224 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $32.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alec Bohm (PHI) Over 0.5 RBIs (+224)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

New York Mets play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Alec Bohm (PHI) Over 0.5 RBIs (+224). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at +224 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $32.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Justin Crawford (PHI) Under 0.5 Singles (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Mets play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Justin Crawford (PHI) Under 0.5 Singles (-120). That is a Singles bet. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.33 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 0.5 totals 1st 1 innings (-122)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Mets play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 0.5 totals 1st 1 innings (-122). That is a totals 1st 1 innings bet. It was priced at -122 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies Win (+110)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Mets play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies Win (+110). That is a h2h bet. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+178)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Mets play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+178). That is a alternate spreads bet. It was priced at +178 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 18 Sep

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 18, 2026

On September 18, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 Walks (-417)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Mets play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 Walks (-417). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -417 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 Doubles (-909)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Mets play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 Doubles (-909). That is a Doubles bet. It was priced at -909 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 RBIs (-500)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Mets play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 RBIs (-500). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at -500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
J.T. Realmuto PHI Batter - Doubles
Alec Bohm PHI Batter - Doubles
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Doubles
Luis Arraez MIN Batter - Total Bases
J.T. Realmuto PHI Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA3.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 1-4, 4.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA3.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 1-4, 4.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 1-4, 4.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
5.2runs we expect
L5 RF4.4L5 RA3.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 1-4, 4.4 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2BALHome
L0–2NYYAway
W12–2NYYAway
L4–6NYYAway
W15–14MIAAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–4ATLAway
L2–12ATLAway
L5–6ATLAway
L1–2HOUHome
W11–7HOUHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.4 runs per game (1-4) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 4.0 (1-4); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 3.2 earned runs per game versus 4.4 for Philadelphia Phillies.

4.4
New York Mets runs/G
4.0
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game4.44.0
Hits / game8.47.6
Home runs / game1.80.8
Walks drawn / game3.82.2
Batter K / game8.06.4
Earned runs allowed / game3.24.4
Pitching K / game10.28.2
Walks allowed / game1.63.4
L5 record1-41-4

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 9 times recently: New York Mets won 4, Philadelphia Phillies won 5.

DateNew York MetsPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Jul 1961New York Mets
Jul 1816Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 1641New York Mets
Jun 2845Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 2762New York Mets
Jun 2612Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 2126Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 20315Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 1864New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Daniel Duarte RPOUT
Robert Stock RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Jesus Luzardo SPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — where the money went

Since betting opened on Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, the market has moved away from New York Mets across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Spread — New York Mets -1▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Philadelphia Phillies 1▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — Philadelphia Phillies▲ Money came for this
Spread — New York Mets -1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — New York Mets▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 8.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 8.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Philadelphia Phillies 1.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

The umpire factor

Home-plate umpire: Ramon De Jesus. His games average 8.9 total runs against a league average of 8.9.

8.9
Runs in his games
8.9
League average

Ramon De Jesus called this game behind the plate. Across 170 games his days at the park bring about the usual amount of scoring.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets prediction for September 18, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 18, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 0.5 totals 1st 1 innings (-122), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Mets, or as Mets vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Thursday 17 September 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 51 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 26–25 across the last 51 meetings · these games average 9.0 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
19 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies1–6New York Mets
18 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies6–1Philadelphia Phillies
16 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies1–4New York Mets
28 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets4–5Philadelphia Phillies
27 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets6–2New York Mets
26 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets1–2Philadelphia Phillies
21 Jun 2026New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies6–2Philadelphia Phillies
20 Jun 2026New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies15–3Philadelphia Phillies
18 Jun 2026New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies4–6New York Mets
11 Sep 2025New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies6–4Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 51 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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